Bordeaux 2014

Haven’t seen any comments here on this Wine-searcher article

http://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2015/03/wine-experts-give-first-rating-of-bordeaux-2014

What do people think? Optimism for a vintage perhaps worth buying? Cynicism that the vintage is even remotely as good as claimed? Who is hoping to buy some Bordeaux if the quality and price fall in the right spots?

For me, it’s very unlikely I’d buy any of 2014 unless something very unusual indeed happens with prices. I’ve skipped 2011 and 2013 entirely. And would prefer to buy the better vintages of the late 80s, 90s, and early 2000s before investing in more young Bordeaux. I’ve also decided that futures just make no sense at all. For the few I bought from 2012, prices have fallen a few percent since I pre-paid. No bueno.

I suppose 1994 could have been described as the best since 1990 too.

So not sure I would put much value in something like “best since 2010”…

I don’t think there is a compelling reason to buy a bunch of futures. On the other hand, if it’s the type of vintage they are saying and prices at the chateaux stay at 2013 levels, exchange rates should make it pretty well priced in the US. $85-100 for Pichon Lalande doesn’t sound very good for 2011-13, but $80 for 2014 could be pretty interesting. It was $80 for the 2000 EP.

I agree, this is not a very helpful comparison. The comparisons to 2008 are, though.

They make a lot of the stuff, and it gets traded around a lot (for better or worse), so if there isn’t some super compelling need (like a tiny production estate, or specialty size bottling), one can wait to try them in bottle, and then decide. In the new modern world with a strengthening dollar (admittedly no one knows for how long) and futures pricing that is quoted as if there zero risk to buying EP, why step up?

I don’t know how to describe this phenomenon, but I’ll attempt. There isn’t much ‘dispersion’ in futures pricing compared to when they are in bottle. So the pricing is all in the same basic zone as its just some ‘item’ sold on an email, or maybe if the vendor is old school via a newsletter/mailer. Even though not all vendors are equal in their capacity to actually deliver, or general ease of dealing with, there isn’t much difference in pricing, proportionately. So that doesn’t make sense to me to begin with. Once things show up in bottle prices will display more dispersion (up and down), based on local supply demand, and perhaps ratings upgrades etc. That variation can be chance for a person to perhaps drink a little better than they might have, than if they’d sunk all their vintage spend into futures.

These are low interest rates times, so perhaps no futures discount is ‘warranted’.

But I still do not think its such a riskless adventure.

I’m a big believer that this is a make or break vintage for Bordeaux…and not from a quality perspective. To have 3 consecutive unsuccessful En Primeur campaigns, most of which revolved around very high combined with low quality (I know 2012 has it’s spots, but it’s not 2009 or 2010). Now, let’s say 2014 is a very good vintage, my guy says that unless the wines come out at heavily rolled back prices, it’s not going to sell again. I think there is just too much good wine (OK, way too much) out there, and Bordeaux has lost it’s luster b/c it’s really not rare or limited.

Ian, what do you mean make or break?

Yes I wonder what this means as well. Certainly Bordeaux isn’t going to close shop.

What I’d be interested in seeing is more of the large Bordeaux producers trying different models of selling and distribution. If indeed four less than spectacular vintages in a row are putting unusual financial pressure on these businesses, this could be a catalyst for change. Or not.

The much more likely scenario is that prices just fall further from 2012 and 2103 prices.

Once it becomes more clear for estates, and the supply chain, that ‘buying and holding’ isn’t some guarantee of making money, perhaps things will start to normalize.

Maybe its anecdotal, but it doesn’t seem to me that bdx shows up on the flash sale sites much. When it does it seems to me to be stuff I’ve never heard of. Perhaps that will be cue that the towel is eventually being thrown in. Or the proverbial cruise/air industries start serving more off vintage but famous names. That might be their preferred outlet anyways, as the prices can be kept more quiet, and prestigious labels matter more for those kinds of trades.

Basically this. There has been murmurs about this for pretty much a year (essentially when the 2013 campaign hit), that change was needed, or else the back up of wine was going to cause issues for the negociants (especially the little ones). The answer isn’t quite as simple, but classified Bordeaux has basically become wine for the wealthy (at the risk of oversimplifying) , and there is WAY too much of it to be sustainable.

Someone asked me what is a bottle of wine worth. I said, what someone was willing to pay for it.

They replied, but I see it for $XXXX on W-S. Is that what it’s worth? I said absolutely not. If it was, then it wouldn’t be on W-S, it would be sold. (obviously at this point I sent them the auction price…)

I see.

The distribution model seems badly broken. It seems to have worked wonders up until now for the producers, less so for the brokers and consumers. But I agree that the current model is not sustainable.

As for the “bdx is for the wealthy” sentiment, we’ve been over that 100 times. The top 50-100 labels are surely for the wealthy, but the same is true for barolo and CA cab and burgundy etc. There is an ocean of good bdx wine that can be had at very competitive prices.

Can’t some of the blame be placed on negociants? They’re so worried about protecting their allocations for great vintages that they buy lesser vintages whether they want to or not? Can’t put 100% blame on chateaux - they post a price, others pay it.

It is always said that a ton of wine is sitting in their cellars unsold. But whose cellars? Chateaux or negociants? If it sits unsold at the chateaux, let them fail proudly if they refuse to modify pricing. Otherwise, I can’t harp on them for being capitalists.

I would almost say this is another knock against the Chateaus.

Yes, definitely. I think the chain: big insurance/luxury companies - nego - retailer - consumer is very asymmetric, apersonal and in the end unhealthy. They are not meant to drink anymore, but store money from certain countries in big cooling units. Same as buildings in London/Paris/Berlin/Munich…

Ian has already answered but I agree that this is a make or break vintage for personal reasons. Bordeaux was my first love and remains the largest component of my cellar but that has been changing rapidly over the past few years. With escalating prices of the wines I’m interested in along with poor vintages, I’ve just lost interest. If 2014 yields a vintage of good quality but the prices don’t fall in line with reality, I will continue to look at other regions. Honestly, I think that if 2014 doesn’t entice me back to Bordeaux, I may never return. If I am in any way representative of my generation (and I don’t know if I am), Bordeaux has a long term problem.

That’s very well put, and I have similar feelings. I bought little 09 and 10 due to the high prices, and nothing since then. A good vintage with decent pricing would probably get me reengaged, but absent that, my dollars and attention will just continue going elsewhere.

Some interesting interviews with technical directors on Bdx2014 (in french):

Didn´t know that John Kolasa will retire this summer…

This question is for those who aren’t buying unless it is a GOOD vintage and fair pricing. Are you not buying based on principal? Why would you care if the critics say it is an average vintage if a producer you like makes a good wine at a fair price in those “off” years? I could understand if you are trying to buy as an investment, or for price appreciation.

I only buy Bordeaux to drink. I don’t care about the vintage per se but about the quality of the wine I’m interested in relative to price. When the quality of the majority of the wines in a given vintage is poor, and the prices aren’t dropping proportionately, I’m not motivated to spend the time investigating specific producers. Sure there might be a couple I’ll pick up, but not in quantity. Its an allocation of resources issue for me. Money isn’t the only resource, my time is as well.

The other issue I stated earlier remains relevant here as well. As Bordeaux prices climbed and we hit a streak of low quality vintages, I started looking elsewhere. I’ve now found wines I enjoy very much at similar and lower price points than the Bordeaux I used to buy. It isn’t out of principal, but out of circumstance. My interest in new vintages of Bordeaux is fading, and if I’m not enticed back, I’m unlikely to ever buy significant quantity again.

I buy wines, not vintages. Even in a fantastic vintage, I am likely to buy specific wines that I like or that have appealed to me in the past rather than buy broadly because the vintage got high marks.

If there are bargains available in 2014 I will buy a few. I bought a fair number of 2012 Ducru Beaucaillou at $58 because they seemed a very fine deal. I also bought a couple of Haut Brion and Mouton at ~250 for the same reason.

It seems unlikely that I will buy a lot no matter what the critics say, but not because bdx represents poor value. Some labels do; a great many do not. I just have a cellar full of wine to drink and buying more to mature over 20 years seems not to be terribly sensible at this point.