Low Yields For Napa 2015 Cabernet Question

In Napa Valley in 2013, the quality was high and the yields were high. This resulted in a lot of very good inexpensive wines.

I understand that in 2015, the quality is high but the yields were comparatively low. Can I expect a lot of good inexpensive wines from that vintage like in 2013 or will most grapes be sold by the growers for more expensive brands? In other words, will the low yields limit the availability of good bargain wines from Napa in 2015?
Thanks

You pose your questions in a way in which it is difficult to provide answers. 2015s are either in bottle or close to going in bottle, so the question of “grapes” to be sold from that vintage is long, long passed.

2015 was indeed, at least here in Napa Valley, a vintage of small yields from the vineyards. With that said, do you want to try to be more explicit in your questions? Someone who buys juice sold off by wineries is in a better position to answer some of your questions. Someone, perhaps, like Cameron Hughes. Wineries have various reasons why they sell off juice and do not sell it under their own labels. I’ll let someone else handle that part of the equation.

Supply and demand.

Supply was down, and demand was steady or (most likely) up.

This would have caused an increase in price.

But it all depends on whether there’s an acreage or tonnage contract.

In heavy years like 2012, if vineyards had tonnage contracts it’s likely that someone ended up with fruit that had no destination, so calls can be made and the fruit can have a home quickly. This is where inexpensive wines might have a better than normal vintage.

The bulk market was very tight in regards to Cabernet from the 2015 vintage

Yeah, pretty much - don’t expect a lot of bargains out there from '15 at least when it comes to second or private/control labels. There has been decent amount of high quality '15 bulk and still some decent amounts of '14 (remember, '12, '13, '14 all huge to healthy vintages) so CHW is very happy with its supply - have killer Fall lineup planned with plenty of '14 and '15 cabs - couple '14’s just released. We are now approaching the market opportunistically having tied up plenty of small lots of high-end Cab but I should add that, since we are largely all sold online now, we don’t have concerns for broad market supply so that plays into it.

I would also advise caution on negoce/private/control labels out of '15…there were plenty of high-value sub-app wines that transacted at high prices that were either press lots or produced from uneven clusters (which we, of course, pass over) as wineries sought to take advantage of the tighter market and produce fruit they normally would have green harvested or maybe added just another squeeze at the press. I get price guidance from folks but am not always privy to who purchased them so not sure where/how they’ll show up but, nevertheless, '15 probably good year to stick with known quantities…'16, however, will see a return to larger bulk quantities as it was big harvest with healthy looking '17 behind it so further squeeze inventory positions.

Thanks for the insight Cameron! I always enjoy a peek inside the business end of my obsession. There are a lot of ramifications of the reduced harvest of 2015. I think your advice to stick to known sources is a very good one.

YEah, I can’t think of any circumstance where less grapes available would mean cheaper wine that vintage (assuming the same level of quality).