Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

A friend and I were recently discussing trends in wine, namely the stratospheric rise of Cornas and the decline of Australia form its highs in the late 1990’s. What’s your prediction on which regions will encounter a similar rise/fall next?

I can’t speak to Cornas.

But the new Australia is the old Australia. There are still a bunch of great classic properties out there and the wines are readily available.

The ‘Next’ thing that is happening in Australia is a change in style by the new generation. Lots of carbonic maceration, pet nat, concrete, and other stuff like that.

My friend David Forziati, who worked with Ben Hammerschlag for a long long time, is working on setting up an import company to bring in some of these winemakers.

I know there are already a few of these wines in the market, but unfortunately I can’t give you any names off the top of my head.

What an interesting question that is.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Argentine Malbec were the next Australia in some sense. There market for that category is highly focused on relatively low price points, plus it’s a lot of consumers drinking generic tasting wines whose style could easily be reproduced in so many other places.

As unsure as I am about that, it’s even more difficult to predict the Cornas side of the question. Possibly Bierzo because you have such small production there with very high quality at the top and a definite hipster appeal. As the best wines from the past decade or so age, a real interest might develop there. The big difference is obviously that Cornas has had a greater number of producers making great wine for a lot longer, but I could still see it happening for Bierzo.

That being a long-shot, my more confident guess for the Cornas comparison would be Barolo/Barbaresco. There are only a couple of producers whose wines have entered stratospheric prices, and even those haven’t had the same sort of aftermarket effect as what you see with certain Cornas wines. There are quite a few other producers in Barolo and Barbaresco making truly outstanding wine, but overall production of that quality level is pretty low, so a significant increase in interest could really influence pricing and availability. The value of most of those producers is still excellent (even after price increases over the past few vintages), so there’s the potential for demand to spike. Combine all of that with big aftermarket increases on just a few wines at this point (top vintages of Giacosa within 10 years of release, Burlotto as well), and I think you have the recipe.

In my opinion it’s the things getting buzz (or not) on here; rising: Oregon (both Pinot and Chard), cru Beaujolais, German pinot, old vine Californians (Zin and Petite Sirah especially), Loire Valley, Basilicata/Campania Aglianico, Super Tuscans, Yakimia and Columbia Valley meritage and Syrah, Bandol, Sierra Foothills, Mendocino avas, Castilla-Leo, Austria (maybe), Germany outside Mosel (Nahe, Pfalz, Rheingau, Rheinhessen, Franken), AFWE

falling: S.A. Malbec, Sonoma County Pinot Noir (but not coast), Southern Rhone and Provence, Chianti, Prosecco, Valpolicella, Napa Chardonnay, Trentino pinot grigio, Rioja (with exception to a few iconic producers), orange wine, Paso Robles, don’t think Shiraz has bottomed out yet, Parkerized Napa Valley

I think it is good to remember that Cornas is a tiny appellation where the overall quality is high. That said most of the producers there have not got that hot at all - many are selling their wine for a relatively modest price and there really is no secondary market for them. My guess would be that many of the rising talents of the Northern Rhône in general will see their fame increase in the coming years. Likewise there are producers in pretty much all parts of the region with top notch vineyards and unambitious viticulture/winemaking. As the next generation comes in or the land changes hands new stars will be born.

And here I thought Bierzo had entered mainstream and the Galician reds were the hipsters’ Bierzo!

That being a long-shot, my more confident guess for the Cornas comparison would be Barolo/Barbaresco. There are only a couple of producers whose wines have entered stratospheric prices, and even those haven’t had the same sort of aftermarket effect as what you see with certain Cornas wines. There are quite a few other producers in Barolo and Barbaresco making truly outstanding wine, but overall production of that quality level is pretty low, so a significant increase in interest could really influence pricing and availability. The value of most of those producers is still excellent (even after price increases over the past few vintages), so there’s the potential for demand to spike. Combine all of that with big aftermarket increases on just a few wines at this point (top vintages of Giacosa within 10 years of release, Burlotto as well), and I think you have the recipe.

Agree and seeing how Barolo and Barbaresco prices have been on an incline for almost a decade now (pulling the prices of Alto Piemonte wines up along with them), I think they have been on that road for awhile now.

The next Cornas will be pot infused drinks. The next Australia will be corporate crap wine once everyone discovers it’s corporate crap wine.

Next Cornas, Barolo. Next Australia, Napa Cabs (ex-MacDonald)

Pot-infused drinks a great answer

I feel there are great wines from Allentejo Portugal that don’ t get imported here. I had several reds that were great: Herdade do Perdigao Reserve was one I REALLY liked. Can’t find it here… tough to find in Portugal too.

[scratch.gif] Australia = only big Shiraz???

+1

Prices have run up very steeply on a handful of Barolo producers (e.g., Giacosa, G. Conterno, G. Rinaldi, B. Mascarello) but the price escalation is been much more moderate generally.

It’s not really a fair comparison to Cornas, because Cornas is 104 hectares versus 1,734 of nebbiolo in Barolo (both figures for 2004). And the latter doesn’t include Barbaresco.

Prices in Cornas also partly reflect succession issues. If you go back 25 years, Clape and Verset were the standout producers. Juge and Michel were on the B+ list. When Verset retired, prices for his wines went stratospheric, as they had for Gentaz-Dervieux’s Cote Roties when G-D retired – they were the last of their generations and had no one to take over. Michel also retired without a direct successor. Of the new generation of producers, only Allemand (who started in the 90s, I believe) has had real cachet and three-digit prices to show for it.

So, not only is Barolo 17x bigger, succession has not been a major issue there. Consumers know that traditions will be carried on. So I don’t see the same drivers of crazy price increases there.

Seems to me that the region that really is due for a rise (and actually this is only a part of a region) is non-classified Bordeaux. I don’t think these wines we ever get really expensive because the region is so large, but there are so many really excellent wines there that are totally ignored by most wine lovers. Someday, a Duboeuf or a Guigal is going to come along and figure out a way to market the heck out of these forgotten wines.

I am going to get absolutely roasted for this by the true believers (most of whom are from Germany), but the wine that has gone too extreme (like Australia) and is due for a fall is GG or trocken German wines.

The Lord retired??? [wow.gif] Now I understand why the world is so screwed up.

Uh… that was Mouton-Cadet (and Barton & Guestier) 30-40 years ago, but I haven’t seen those on shelves in years. Maybe it’s time for a fresh, mass market brand for this category.

GG prices are driven by the domestic German market, I believe, so I don’t see that happening.

I think we have pretty well exhausted the winemakers in regions toiling in obscurity. I thought Madiran might be, but it has not hit the radar of the hip sommeliers, and there is a reason for that; they are not that good young, and not that good with some age.

So I am left with a region that has not only been discovered, but also has seen some significant price rises, and that is Pomerol. Still relatively traditional, incredibly high quality, and best wines outside of Petrus, Le Pin and Lafleur are trading at the same level as top Cornas. I have been accused of not liking Cornas; not true, I like them well enough at $40 but not when it is the same cost as say VCC 2009. For me, in this current crazily priced wine world, Pomerol seems to be a relative bargain.

Disclaimer: I am buying Pomerol as either drinking for my son, or he can sell hopefully for big money.

As for the next big bust, I cannot believe yellow wines haven’t hit the skids.

John,

If the best you can come up with is Mouton-Cadet and B&G, I think you have made my point. But, in the end I think we agreed anyway.

There is a lot of excellent Bordeaux for $15-30. If only anyone understood it, I think there would be a market for it.

My point was that Mouton-Cadet and B&G were HUGE sellers in their day, so your idea is good, but not entirely new. Time for a refresh of the category. What the Bordelais industry needs is the Antinori or Guigal of Bordeaux!

Blatantly commercial post:
The next Cornas is Maury Sec.

Blatantly non-commercial post:
The next Australia is California Pinot Noir.

More tha somewhat commercial comment:
I don’t think that Argentine Malbec will hit the skids like Australia. I also don’t think it’s generic. Sure, there’s an ocean of inexpensive wine out there that hits the palate with a big burst of jammy but green fruit and pulls a quick disappearing act. That’s been tanking for five years. But nobody else (apologies to Washington) does Malbec as well and the best are great. I’m putting my money where my mouth is and looking to import more Argentine Malbec in the ~$20 - 30 range, along with easier things like Cab Franc and Petit Verdot.

Dan Kravitz

I’ve been hearing for ten years now that Portugal is the next big thing! There are so many great wines that are exported to the US, I can only imagine the QPR of the wines they keep in the country. But the category still hasn’t attracted the attention it deserves, at least not in my experience.