I thought this was a pretty good summary - I scoured a few sources to buy a couple bottles (purely looking for best value) and ended up with Domaine de Chevalier, Chateau Le Gay, and Haut Smith Lafitte.
We had a 2018 Bordeaux threat here last year - should be easy to pull up and has links to Levy and Panos, etc. Farr vintners has its notes and others on its site. Where we go from here on Bordeaux futures
A very significant risk at this juncture. Personally, I would not buy futures right now. Caveat emptor.
And frankly, no need. With markets and the economy down, many of the wines will be available on retail shelves. Most almost always are anyway even in great vintages during solid economic times. I’d rather bear the risk of paying a few pennies more than not getting my wine or my money back. If you buy futures, the Total Wine pay only 50% deal may be the best move.
Plenty of wine already here in the US which is obviously not going to be subject to tariffs. Also there is definitely pressure on some stores with older vintages to sell ones such as 2015 at cost or even below. And finally there is far less money in the economy than a month ago, and buying wine is only going to make sense if it is thought of as a safe haven. Otherwise, you may see much lower prices.
I would steer well clear, as there is no way 2018 is going to appreciate.
Jeff - I love your notes on CT. They have guided my purchases on 15s and 16s, and now 18’s. I bought some 2018 Laroque and Chevalier futures before the downturn through TotalWine’s 50% deposit. Had I known about COVID-19 then, would have waited. Oh well. Stay safe.
Glad to help. Laroque is a super wine selling for peanuts. It’s one of the few wines that will move in price as it was so low to begin with.
IMO, 2018 Domaine de Chevalier red is the best red the estate has ever produced!
Thanks for your trust. By the way, if you read my site, (in case you don’t) you can find out a lot about those properties and of course most other BDX or Rhône wines you’re interested in.
Jeff’s notes are great, and that website has awesome coverage. I spent a ton of time reading them last summer before (over) investing in 2018 futures.
Chateau Canon is another one that historically has had great value in terms of its futures price vs retail. It also happens to be one of my favorite St Emilion wines.
Thank you everyone for your responses and especially to Jeff and Sean.
I agree with others that buying futures is not smart financially. Older vintages are often available for the same price. My concern with older vintages is how the bottle has been stored.
I read Gold’s book “How and Why to Build a Wine Cellar”. Gold argues that storage conditions are more important in the first years of a bottle rather than in the latter ones.
Can you link to that entire passage? I would have thought the exact opposite.
Thanks!
And PS. Jeff’s site is excellent. Pay attention to his notes, as it is clear which Bordeaux are modern and which are classic. Some palates, like Jeff’s, love them both. Some palates do not. I think Jeff knows that clearly and his notes seem to be tailored to that understanding without using the explicit words of “traditional” or “modern”.
I don’t have a passage to quote. The book is interesting, but it’s quite unorganized and hard to follow.
Gold’s point is that heating and cooling puts pressure on the wine in the bottle. When the ullage is small, the ullage has a hard time “resisting” this pressure, and thus the wine is undergoing more changes (escaping the bottle). When the ullage is large, the ullage acts as a better cushion to wine pressure. His conclusion is that bottles with low ullage (i.e., young) are more sensitive to temperature changes.
I agree with all of this. Going further, futures have generally not provided much savings anyway in recent years, so unless one wants formats other than 750 mL or is buying very small production wines (which include almost none of the big names, except maybe in Pomerol), I haven’t seen the benefit. At least that’s been my impression based on what I’ve seen. Whether or not all of that is correct (I don’t follow the Bordeaux market broadly), I think buying futures now is not wise.
I’ve been looking at ‘18 futures and saw an email this week from Zachys stating, “… many Châteaux are preparing to release their 2018s early, meaning some wines may be available in the US as soon as this July/August.”