$225 Cab discussion

I’m new to this game. And have a hard time tasting the difference between a $100 Cab and a $225 Cab but I haven’t had much $225 Cab in my life, to be fair. I work in the stock market and approach this discussion from that perspective. When there is a hot IPO, you can’t get allocation to it. And it’s underpriced and it opens much higher for a sure thing. Of course, Wine is not much different. Wines with long waiting lists are underpriced and command premiums immediately on the secondary market. If the priced them at market, the wait list would vanish.

My question/debate is this: Any expensive current vintage wine, in the $100+ price point but really $200+, if it’s readily available to anyone day 1, and if you can buy older vintages at cost or very close through retail, why would anyone buy this wine day 1? Isn’t the market clearly saying it’s overpriced? Can’t you just wait to see how the wine reviews and buy it years later at near cost or cost? What is the rational besides hoping to get access to something not overpriced aka something that does sell out immediately/has a wait list later in the year?

I’ve seen a lot of these $200+ Cabs been readily available since I started looking at them.

I am only buying wine for consumption not for investment. But I also don’t want to pay inflated prices for wine. I can name you some vineyards that apply to above but you know who they are. There are many. Is it relationships that keep you buying? Is it you feel the value is there based on the taste and the rest is irrelevant?

Macdonald. $165. Really compares well to much more expensive stuff.
Not widely available tho.

A lot of producers have been testing the theory that if you price the release at Market the waitlist will vanish. More and more the last few years prices have risen and are getting very close or are at Market. One perfect example is Harlan. Used to be a great value to be on their list and be able to flip some of the wine for enough profit that you could drink the rest for free. Now they price the release at essentially the market price it makes no sense to even be on their list. I think a lot of people are figuring out that there are very few lists that have any value these days. Buying on the secondary market and cherry picking the best vintages leaves you with no commitment and doesn’t really cost anymore than building up a large vertical with many vintages that you don’t even care for.

Are you saying that the ability to buy a wine without “trying hard” that it’s evidence that it’s overpriced? I don’t think I agree.

I do agree there are lots of cabs out there in the $150-300 ballpark — many of which are overpriced relative to quality. It’s expensive land or fruit, so unless you’ve been there a while, it’s hard to put out a bottle of anything noteworthy aged in 100% new French oak (as most of them seem to be) for under 100 bucks a bottle. In terms of buying higher priced cabs from Napa, find yourself a good trust agent to pre-screen bottles (I like ACME in St Helena), trust your palate when you taste stuff, and don’t overbuy something simply because it has a high price tag and you’ll probably be fine.

But yeah, if you want to find $75-100 cabs just as good as most of the $200 cabs out there you certainly can. Chappellet, Frog’s Leap, BV, Stags Leap, Smith-Madrone, Clos du Val, Mayacamas, etc … not sexy names, but places that have been there a while and don’t have those massive start up costs baked in to every bottle.

ETA (we were posting at the same time, so I didn’t have the opportunity to reply):

It’s a balance, I suppose. On the one hand, you have to see the producer’s POV watching wines they’re selling for $400 go for $1000 basically the next day. OTOH, yes, if you release it at the market value, then there’s really no need to be on the list and buy wines on softer vintages … which in turn diminishes the perceived cachet of the brand since the wine is now attainable so quickly. Sounds like a fun MBA project…

At that price, has to be from your brother !

[winner.gif]

Geography, all about that!

Yah well that has nothing to do with what I posted, lol. Anything you can’t get day 1 is underpriced by definition of the market.

That is exactly what I’m saying. And it seems any of the producers that have wines available day 1 to anyone have not priced at market but are overpricing actually. And why should we buy? Can’t I just buy a few years from now after I see how the wine develops?

Nah, it’s not about trying hard. Not even sure what that means. I’m saying the wine is overpriced. Supply > demand (substantially) at the price point they charging and you can just wait and buy it years later if you want it. You’re taking the risk w/o any real reward.

I’ve mostly stopped buying wines from the winery that later show up cheaper on the secondary market. Shafer is a good example of that. The downside is if they pop out an RP Hundo then the price doubles but hey, lots of good wine out there. Their wines should either be in high enough demand that the price is higher on secondary market or they should provide a discount to list members to reward you for loyal buying.

Matthew, start laying down some Ridge Monte Bello. Sign up for the futures program - these wines will only get more expensive with time.

Sc0tt Fitzger@ld wrote:
Matthew, start laying down some Ridge Monte Bello. Sign up for the futures program - these wines will only get more expensive with time.

+1 on the Ridge Monte Bello. And you may also be able to find back vintages that are in your $225 price range target to get an idea of what kind of style the wine is and if it suits your tastes. We have been buying Monte Bello for several years, FWIW. A great, great wine, year after year.

Ed

what wines do you like? value is important, sure. but start first with what you like. if you’re buying for consumption and not investment, then stop thinking so much. plus there is zero US wine right now which is an investment at the $100 price point. even at 225 you can count all the US wine investments on less than 5 fingers.

if it’s readily available to anyone day 1, and if you can buy older vintages at cost or very close through retail, why would anyone buy this wine day 1? because of provenance, and i want to try the current vintage. older vintage might be younger vines, different winemaker, different grapes/section of the vineyard, just not apples for apples.

Isn’t the market clearly saying it’s overpriced? fück the market. who cares.
Can’t you just wait to see how the wine reviews and buy it years later at near cost or cost? maybe. but scores are overrated. besides jeb.
What is the rational besides hoping to get access to something not overpriced aka something that does sell out immediately/has a wait list later in the year? i buy wine that i like and can also afford and really don’t consider whether it sells out or how long the wait list is.

Purchased Monte Bello as 2008 futures when my son was born, paid less than $100.00 then, latest wine-searcher shows $225.00 what does that equate to after 11 years on release? newhere

Ridge is a good example of a consistently great wine priced attractively for release buyers. And yes, it’s the only guaranteed annual buy list that I’m on.

But what Matthew asked about was why people buy on lists that are fully market priced, often available later at a significant discount. My guess is that it’s many many things - relationship with the winery/wine-maker, access to otherwise unavailable experiences (tastings, dinners, other events), price insensitivity (a huge one!), lack of interest in wine as a hobby that leads you to hunt down deals after release, access to guaranteed quantities (some things are really hard to buy by the case after release), access to larger bottles, importance of social markers (I.e. desire to impress others - or yourself - with labels) over cost, laziness (“I tried it, I liked it, I’ll just buy it every year so I don’t have to think about it”) etc. Those are just off the top of my head.

And they are all amplified when you combine with massive amounts of disposable cash. This board is not generally a place where billionaires hang out - the “the cost of wine is inconsequential to my net worth’ crowd. Instead WB is more filled with the white collar world in which a $300 bottle might be a special occasion wine, $150 is approachable for faves, and finding those deals in the $50-$100 range is pretty damn exciting to spice up the $25-$50 regular drinkers. It’s hard to understand how the other half (i.e. the uber wealthy) live. But certainly price matters a lot less than many other things.

I think it’s a bit more complicated than a simple demand supply curve/invisible hand, etc. There are subtle items in play (think currency fluctuations as they impact securities that are offshore) to larger (think impact of oil as they relate to the equity market). Add it’s a tangible non-durable commodity (or asset depending how you look at it) that you actually take possession of (actually have your corn futures contract delivered vs having your gold contracts delivered) that’s durable (how was it stored, delivered, etc) and a ‘market additive’ can occur or subtracted on the open market due to the above unknowns ++. Further, good thing I am drinking now (a Bordeaux (VCC) to further complicate things as they price differently), styles and how they age and their followers palate preferences can impact positively or negatively in post release pricing.

I am active in both release (some) and after market as a way to make sure I get what I want at a reasonable price vs best price as many times I want to make sure I get what I want (why work so hard to only get leftovers so to speak).

When I started out I would pool money with friends where we would spend $500 ($125 per person) every two weeks. Brown bag the wines and the buyer could buy 1 $500 bottle or 10 $10 bottles and one $400 bottle and everything in between. It gave you a great sense of age, vintage, regions, styles, etc and the sometimes exponential cost for finite gain per $25 (although sometimes you could really tell the difference). It gets even more fun/nuts when Bordeaux wines are in play.

While I don’t agree with a number of wines mentioned in this thread as suggestions- that’s the beauty of it, I don’t have to. Plus your palate changes just when you think you figured it all out :slight_smile:

My five tiers (release price not inflated or discounted) for Napa Cabernets/Bordeaux blends are as follows (very different in other regions and grape varietals):

  1. $75 - $100
  2. $100 $150
  3. $150 - $200
  4. $200 - $250
    Not much on the $251 - $499 tier (yes they exist just not a significant enough amount to matter).
  5. ~$500

Ask for suggestions, taste at release (better yet go to Napa and go to tastings) and as they age and then venture into secondary market or Vice Versa. Not sure if any of what I wrote has value but I guess you get what you pay for. Cheers.

S&P 500 was at 1300 in 2008 and now it’s at 2900 so if you had put that $100 in a simple S&P type fund it would be worth $223 and you could buy that wine but you’d have to pay capital gains taxes and you wouldn’t know where it’s been for the last 12 years. If you had bought it and tried to sell it now you would have to ship it to an auction house and they would take a cut of the sales. So if your interest is in drinking it you’re better off buying it when it was released if you want to make money on it you’re probably better off putting your money in a mutual fund.

I’m interested in drinking wine but want to make sure I’m getting the best value, which is subjective, for my dollar.

your desire to do this is normal, but it’s just not analogous.

I’m surprised nobody mentioned DiCostanzo yet, seeing how popular they are in the WB community. I grabbed their entry level 2017 DICO for $55 each during WB11 and it definitely lived up to the hype. Their single vineyard bottles run in the $95-$125 range, which is still a great “deal” for Napa.

The other bottle that immediately comes to mind is the Bevan Ontogeny, which never disappoints at $95.

I don’t drink a lot of Cabernet these days but Spottswoode to me can go up against most of the higher end cults year after year! Macdonald is pretty solid though extremely difficult to find under 2x the release price in the secondary market!