"Elder-statesman" followup

The earlier thread asking “When do we stop buying wines?” made me think of an ancillary question:

When do we stop buying in terms of our ‘drink-through’ rate? For instance, if you have 6 years of
wine in your cellar based upon your average consumption, when would you begin to stop buying? I realize
this question would depend on life expectancy, health, whether you have wines needing age or ready-to-drink, but
is there a good rule of thumb about how many years of bottles one should strive for?

I approach this issue by category and of course try to match the “stop buying” with the “years of bottles.” I don’t think you can look at either one by itself, because they tie together.

So if I like my Bdx with an average of 30 years post-release age on it, then I should stop buying Bdx 30 years before I want to estimate (for these purposes) that I’m going to stop drinking, and I should have a 30 year supply (spread relatively evenly across the last 30 vintages or so) on hand when I do based on my projected consumption rate. If they don’t match (or example, if you only have a 20 year supply when you reach the age to stop buying, or if you have a 30 year supply but all of them are already 20 years old or older), it’s not going to work out as well and you’ll need to adjust your buying/selling/drinking accordingly.

For categories you don’t age (let’s say you like to start each summer with a case of rosé from the prior vintage, and since you like to drink them young, you tend to finish it by Labor Day), the answer will be very different. To paraphrase Carl Reiner, when the rosés start to be released each Spring, check the obits. If you’re not in them, buy a case. If you are, don’t.

What Dave said. I try to have on hand enough wine in any given category to last about as many years as the age they should be when I prefer to drink them.

It gets complicated for a few reasons. I buy less in average or poor years and more in great years. The aging curves aren’t uniform from year to year or wine to wine. My consumption isn’t that steady. I may blow hot or cold on a region or on drinking wine entirely for a stretch of time, though that’s a minor factor. And when it comes to buying I’m occasionally susceptible to irrational exuberance.

Although I’m not an elder statesman, another factor is your own circumstance. In an ideal world, I’d do what has already been said. However, for reasons including budget and storage space, I don’t ever see myself having such a large amount of wine on hand. Instead, I expect I will continue to acquire older vintages long after I’m done buying new releases of some regions. Honestly, unless my health goes south, I’m not sure I’ll ever really stop buying.

This is all well and good but the practicalities of stopping buying Bordeaux 30 years in advance of kicking the bucket seem rather unrealistic to me.

30 years is also a huge period of time in terms of changing tastes, too.

It’s also an extremely clinical way of buying wine - that just doesn’t correlate with what an inherently irrational practice that collecting wine is, anyway, assuming you are primarily collecting to drink rather than collecting to collect. We all know that unless you are exceptionally lucky with investing in specific wines, that buying as needed rather than cellaring is equal or better value.

Another reason to love Burgundy. You can drink the village while leaving the grand cru to mature.

True. Reality doesn’t match what I wrote. Mostly because of the “inherently irrational” nature of collecting. Predicting 30 years in advance when one will kick the bucket is entirely unrealistic. Thus my purchase of 2019 Bordeaux futures. Optimism? Denial? Maybe a little of both. Mostly irrational exuberance.

Personally I simply decided I’d keep my inventory at a maximum of 600 bottles. You can track my success or lack thereof at the inventory reduction thread.

Another year and I think I’ll start aiming for 550, then 500, etc

Buying mature vintages is an entirely different approach. It may make more sense for you, or less, depending on many factors. But if you are mostly buying mature wine that is ready to drink now or over the next handful of years, then you’re not asking the questions raised by this thread. If that’s how you buy wine, then there’s no age at which you should stop buying - until you shuffle off this mortal vineyard or reach the point where you decide to stop drinking. And if that’s how you buy wine, the answer to “how much should I have on hand” is going to be maybe two or three years’ worth (again, depending on many factors).

As David said, it also obviously has to vary a bit here and there. With some wines I will just buy the same amount each and every year. With others, like Bdx, I’ll buy more in better (or better priced) vintages and less in others, so we are talking averages here. But when you spread it over 30 years, as I do with Bdx, averages are pretty easy. And yes, guessing 30 years in advance the age at which I will stop drinking is obviously nothing more than an optimistic guess. I’ve decided to err on the side of being more likely to stop drinking with wine left in the cellar than to run out of mature wines in the cellar before I’m done drinking, but everyone has to decide on their own approach.

I also agree that this is a pretty clinical approach. I try to follow it anyway - not because I prefer a clinical approach to a hedonistic hobby, because I don’t, but because I find a clinical approach necessary because of the intersection of my hedonistic hobby with the decidedly non-hedonistic realities of budgeting my spending and my storage space. If I don’t take an approach like this, then I run out of money or space before I run out of wines I want to buy. So I have to be fairly analytical about how I’m going to allocate the limited resources of money and space across the far greater number of bottles I would buy if money and space were infinite and hedonism drove all buying decisions.

That being said, the clinical approach is, at times, far more aspirational than reality, but I do try.

The one knock on this approach that I disagree with the most is the idea that it is unrealistic to stop buying a particular category when you hit a certain age. Granted, I have not always been able to limit my buying to my budget, but the call of “you can afford one more” when you’re still young enough to see the bottle to maturity is different than when you’re not. Since I stopped buying vintage port, I’ve had no problems ignoring offers for more, and I can’t see myself in my 75th or 80th June getting tempted by en primeur, unless maybe it is a great-grandchild’s birth year or something. (Again, this only applies to those who prefer to buy young and cellar, not to those who prefer to buy mature wines at auction). I also think that the “Lay’s potato chips” principle applies here - mentally, it’s easier to buy none of something (especially if the reason is that you already have a lifetime supply) than to just buy one or two or any other small quantity. Once you take that step to buy that first one, it gets easier and easier to buy “just one more.”

Of course, my 75th June is a long way away, so I have plenty of time to change my mind.

Tell me about it. your description describes a lot of what I’ve experienced. I’m thankful many of the wines saved over the years are ones that can take age, but…still, you find ones that won’t hold up in the journey.

Only problem with that approach is that you’re stuck drinking Burgundy everyday.

where the heck have you been?! Welcome home.

Welcome. Hope that you are doing well.

Bordeaux at 30 years old sounds reasonable until I think: all Bordeaux? Maybe Latour, but what about Gloria? Greysac? Potensac?

It may not be a matter of kicking the bucket cause who knows? You do lose sense of smell and with it, some taste as well with age so your enjoyment of a great wine might not be so great at north of 80. Friends of mine at that age have complained of that. Still have a while to that but not all that long. Doubt my tastes will change just the taster.

The mistake here is having only a 6 year supply! Having a 20 year supply allows one greater flexibility in deciding when to pull the reins on the shopping express. I am not terribly old, and have more wine than I can drink, but I will continue to buy certain wines for a long time, though for varying reasons. I am 55 and 2016 looks like the final vintage for extravagant purchasing in Barolo for me, but as I get older I find I drink somewhat less Barolo and decidedly more satellite appellation Burgundy and Chianti Classico Riserva. I still enjoy some age on both, but a ten year supply fills that bill. And then there are the whites, Chablis, Assyrtiko, Soave, Pinot Bianco, all benefit from a couple of years of age, so I can’t really ever stopping buying these. I am not a pessimist afterall. So there is no hard cut-off date for me but rather a sliding scale of fading purchases. And a final influence to be considered must be the secondary market and how it can play an increasing large role in filling gaps where older wines might be needed. I still buy a little Bordeaux, and have some older bottles in the cellar, but when I need a modest yet mature magnum I often turn to retail for instant gratification.