Allocations Ranked Against Each Other

Apologize for just another allocation thread, but wondered what some more knowledgeable viewpoints might be on several allocations I’m currently running/were recently offered, rather than just “is the XXX offer worth it?” Here’s what I’ve got currently marinating:

Chappellet: Lucked out and grabbed a post-allocation 6-pack of the 2016 Pritchard Hill, and am now on the ongoing list for the same 6-pack each year…2017 is @ $210/ea which would be locked in already, theoretically
Colgin: already got a 6-pack of the 2017 IX Estate @ $500/ea this spring, but now have 2017 Tychson Hill and Cariad offers at the same price
Scarecrow: didn’t get the big brother yet, but got an allocation offer for M. Etain at $195/ea (I believe)
Harlan: similarly, didn’t get big brother yet, but got an allocation offer for The Maiden at $325/ea


Unless I cancelled out of Chappellet, that one is pretty much set in stone. After that I don’t really have anything I’m married to, though my gut says to take a stab at the M. Etain for the 2018 vintage. The Colgin wines are pretty steep, so I’m on the fence with them, but have heard very good things. Harlan is pretty steep itself, but not very hung up on the “2nd wine” vs. other flagships concept, so if it’s a wine that stands up to it’s price (relatively speaking), that’s all that matters. Curious (and appreciative) of anyone that had thoughts on how those might fare against each other, or outright if you feel strongly for/against regardless of the “competition” listed here.

As an aside, I’d love to know what other lists might provide better value than what I’ve landed on so far. I get club shipments yearly from Gamble Family and Dakota Shy, and have plenty of other direct purchases from various places, but as of now am not tied to anything else.

Many thanks in advance.

Honestly, I’d get off the lists. You’ll probably hear this from several others. There are very few allocated wines that can’t be found on the secondary market, many times at lower prices. Looks like you’re a Cali cab fan, so the few I’d sign up for would include:

Ridge Monte Bello
MacDonald
Scarecrow

I’ll let others chime in. Happy hunting!

I was on both Colgin and Scarecrow and dropped both due to price. I liked both very much though and still have a number of bottles aging away.
Can’t speak to Harlan, but due to price (and my only qualifier at this point) seems like an easier pass than Colgin and Scarecrow (given the second wines for each of Scarecrow and Harlan).

As to your second question, for the value and my tastes, I regularly buy Realm (I think The Bard has an especially good quality/ratio), Maybach, Becklyn, and Lewelling.

I regularly buy Greer as well, but not in the amounts as the others above.

As a point of reference, I love Shafer HSS and have bought off the list for many years, but finally dropped off two years ago due to pricing.

Lots of really good Napa Cabs nowadays.

I’d approach it from another angle, are you on the list because you love the wine? If not, follow the sage advice above and buy only what you like whether at retail or mailing list. You may make a little, but you won’t make a hefty return flipping any of the above.

Chappellet Pritchard Hill is a consistently great wine, and I love Pritchard Hill fruit. The fact that it’s not uber “limited” - and you can find it on the menu at just about every high end steakhouse in America - is mostly just because Chappellet has been there forever and bought land when it was dirt cheap/has plenty of fruit.

Scarecrow is definitely a wine where the list price is significantly below the secondary market price (not like Screagle or Macdonald, but closer to them than Harlan). Realm is another one where if you can buy - especially the single vineyard cabs or Absurd - off the list, you’re getting a solid discount vs secondary market pricing … along the lines of Scarecrow where secondary market is more like ~1.5x. Harlan, Colgin, Dalla Valle, etc IME are already priced pretty close to market pricing at this point. Abreu is too, but it’s just great wine, so that’s a buy for me. Colgin, in particular IMO, you can find better deals on back vintages ready to drink compared to current releases. Point is, even if you want the current releases, you can wait and let somebody else pay to store it and probably get it at the same price in 10 years.

Everything else is kinda a crapshoot. Maybe it becomes a “cult” wine and turns into a great investment. Probably not, though, so be prepared to be content drinking it for the price you paid.

The list concept is so addictive. It took me quite a few years to realize there are wines I prefer available at retail at similar or lower prices in almost all cases. I’m not really into Cabernet, though, so maybe that has nothing to do with your question.

Bevan

Those are the wrong lists.

If your stimulus check is burning a hole in your pocket, I’d say go for it.

The Ridge Monte Bello is a consistent winner and worth being on the list.

MACDONALD

dang autocorrect

I’d only be signing up for lists with no retail presence or that offer a significant discount vs. retail.

Scarecrow
MACDONALD
William & Mary
Rivers Marie
Caterwaul
Maybach
Screaming Eagle

Outside of those, most are distributed, and I’d expect there will be plenty of wine with no restaurants for foreseeable future and even when there are, the customers appetite to by wines of this ilk off a wine list with restaurant mark ups and restaurants to buy and stock them

The prices of the wine mentioned by the OP are nuts. I can’t believe how much prices are up from ~7 years ago (I know, market’s different, there have been some 100 pointers). I bought 08 and 09 Chap Pritchard hill from their club for $85 each and the maiden was $150 (?) for the 08.

For Pritchard Hill I’d be leaning toward Continuum and their second bottling Novicium which seem like “values” relative to these neighbors. They’re relatively accessible now and, based on Tim Mondavi at the helm + his love for large percentages of cab franc, will develop for many years.

Those Chappellet Pritchard Hill bottlings take ages to come around so might as well buy secondary market in 15 years vs invest at the top of the market (With the fresh 100 point rating) right now.

Colgin is hard to find a replacement for, however, their retail distribution is a similar price or within ~10% of direct cost. Also they need at least 10 years to develop and I haven’t seen their price escalate dramatically on the secondary market so there’s no advantage to buy today.

Haven’t tried or bought scarecrow so no clue on their wine/value.

I’m not convinced the Harlan wait list is some sort of formality to make new members feel special, or that they really had to wait, or a not so clever marketing move to move more Maiden.

Easy to make the Harlan list these days
I’ve dumped everyone but MACDONALD, Scarecrow, Drinkward-Peschon, Lewelling, Continuum, and Becklyn
Ceritas and Saxum outside Napa

Bingo. And then you are not locked into buying certain quantities in all years.

very fortunate to be a good customer of several great lists, thank you

still get way way way more offers that I pass on

I know what I like, that’s what it’s all about :slight_smile:

Does this mean you have dropped Ovid? [smileyvault-ban.gif]

From a purely economic standpoint, meaning the wines sell for less direct than they do on the open market, the only Napa allocation lists that make sense are:

Scarecrow
MacDonald
Lewelling
Realm (lower end stuff only)
Becklyn (Napa)
Myriad (Beckstoffer stuff)
Rivers-Marie (most of the time)

I’m sure there are more, but these are the ones that come to mind…

I completely respect the idea of supporting a winery directly by buying off the allocation list even if there is no discount vs retail. I do this myself. However,
wineries that have far surpassed retail are doing themselves and certainly their customers a disservice.

Using a couple of the wines posted here as examples, good back vintage of Harlan The Maiden are widely available in the $200-250 ($325 from the winery) range and Colgin IX for $370-400 ($500 from the winery). At those differences, you have to ask what the winery is trying to pull on it’s customers because it certainly doesn’t resemble anything like market pricing.

My guess is many of these “cult” wineries are stilling on large stockpiles of unsold wine. Why sell 10,000 cases at $250/bottle when you can sell 5000 at $500 and be a much bigger deal doing it?

That felt good… Stepping off my high horse.

Lol, I was for it before I was against it!

Funny you say that, as I was thinking about Ovid. I paid $325-350 per bottle plus really nasty shipping costs only to learn my local guy has it for cheaper and it can be found all over the web for much cheaper. I paid for the experience, ha. Well I made the list without asking - they most have loved my charming disposition, scintillating conversation, and golden palate while I visited - and then I never ordered.

Just gifted a bottle to a client, he loved it. Business expense?

:wink: