Why is bordeaux price dropping ?

Looking at the trend lines, it looks like from 2017- now bordeaux pricing has dropped around ~20% and continuing to drop. Why is this happening?

Weaker vintages, change in exchange rate, COVID depression, etc

Lol! A “trend” since 2 releases ago :slight_smile:!!!

Prices went up from 2017 to 2018. 2019 EP was during Covid. There’s no mystery here.

Wikipedia says that Lafleur has 4 hectares which are planted, and Le Pin has only 2.7:

Are their prices declining?

Focus on improving your ramen, David!

Bordeaux has struggled more and more in En Primeur over the last few years. I suspect Covid was actually a bit of an excuse for them to reset pricing levels - and they’ve now had record (by bottle) sales in en primeur.

The quezsiton which is more speculative is whether these are temporary or permanent price drops - e.g. how it impacts historic vintages. So far impact otn things like 2015, 2016, 2018 seems limiteed I believe, but as more historic stock from warehouses hits the market who knows what will happen? I wouldnt be surprised if people who bought heavily - esp higher volume releases like left bank - get caught out over the next few years, tbh. 17 and 18 look particularly suspect to me ein terms of their pricing levels, though I never went big on 17 and 18.


Lafleur retained their 18 pricing for the 19 EP - as far as I;m aware they’ve had no substantial price drop, but its a wine that practicaly goes up 50-100% if you’re lucky enough to get an en primeur allocation, so why would they drop their price?

Le Pin came out this year at 5-10% discount on last vintage, depending on your merchant. It currently hovers about £7500/3, as best as I can tell, which is actually kinda low historically. Pre-COVID you definitely had some vintages (ignoring 82 and 2000) go above the £40,000/12 mark, more recently prices of, e.g., 2009 and 2010 are more like the £35-38,000 mark.

Yes sir!

Forgot to add, too…

a couple other things to think about:

15, 16, 18, 19 are ‘vintages of the decade’, so there’s a LOT of really high quality wine out there, in large volume production. That is gonna naturally apply price pressure.

At the start of COVID a lot of major wine investors started selling their cellars, presumably to either raise capital to exploit the situation, or to cover losses in the stock market. Either way, I’ve never seen so many £mm+ offers in my inbox before, ever.

This only naturally applies one direction in price pressure. And it doesnt help when good years like 2017 are almost uniformly cheaper now than they were EP - this means people get less likely to invest EP.

Even this year, only a few wines have actually moved ‘notionally’ in price, e.g. Haut Brion, LMHB, CdHB, Mouton, Pontet Canet. How often can you pick up a potentially 100 point Lafite on the open market? :smiley: This year!


Personally I’m only buying for my own consumption, if it produces more than 500 cases a year. I think anything less than 500-1000 cases a year is always going to be an interesting bet for investment, e.g. Lafleur, Le Pin, things like that?

Perhaps its because a large segment of the market who once used to buy heavily are no longer buying as much anymore? This along with millennials choosing other alcoholic options over pricier wines which can cost you money to store and will go bad after a few days of being opened. Everyone on IG has been going crazy over 1942 and Clase Azul lately which you can leave on your countertop to flex for the gram. Several of my peers have gotten into tequila lately since you can leave the fancy bottle on your countertop, serve it to guests as you please, not worry about storage or it going bad. Everything seems to come back around in cycles though, I think wine is due up next.

Since 2014, Bordeaux has had a run of great vintages. In the past, it was hard to sell back to back vintages, see the comparative weakness of 1990 and 2010 on actual release. Now there are five out of six vintages written up from excellent to superb and one good vintage out there. Not surprising the appetite for good young Bordeaux has been satisfied and some. Not sure about the long term, but Bordeaux is a difficult thing to invest in, and only occasionally produce good net returns.

Bordeaux has been a pretty sick wine region for a long time now. While the classified wines and other top wines have done well, lesser estates have been having financial trouble for a long time. Then, for me, I find Bordeaux to be very hard to buy because I don’t follow it well enough to always know which wines are still made like traditional Bordeaux and which have become Rollandized. Then, Bordeaux is a pretty large region. There is a whole lot of classified Bordeaux out there. When, as Mark and others have said there is a run of great vintages, there probably is more supply than demand. I wonder if fewer people are buying Bordeaux as an investment and it is becoming more of a wine.

But, then, I think this is really good news that prices are coming down. I am too old to buy much classified Bordeaux that is going to need long aging, but if I want Bordeaux to drink isn’t it great that it is becoming more affordable? To me, one of the huge problems in the wine world has been that great wine from the top classic wine regions has become unaffordable for most people. So, I think this is great. But, then again I think of wine as something to drink and not to invest in so I don’t really worry about my “net returns” on wine.

Huh? When 2019 wines are over $100 for 2nds, where’s the ‘discount’?

compare that to the 2018s, you’re paying at least 25% more for most red wines…

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2019 vintage is also the first EP offered since tariff was enacted. Most of the top wines from the Left Bank are under 14% alcohol and subject to tariff. Tariff was assuredly taken into consideration regarding ‘19 EP pricing even prior to virus. 2018 and 2017 EPs occurred pre-tariff. 2018 EP pricing being higher than 2017 EP pricing was probably due to perceived quality with ‘17 possibly being perceived as the weakest vintage, in general, since 2013. However, many 2018s did not arrive in US prior to tariff, and even some 2017s did not arrive into US prior to tariff. Thus, some retailers refused wine because of unforeseen tariffs. There may be some discounting in US market for these vintages now in order move orphaned stocks.

most expensive 18s are still in barrel :smiley:

I don’t think secondary prices for Bordeaux have dropped at all since 2017, particularly for classic vintages (2005 and older) that are mature or approaching maturity. From my perspective, prices for those vintages have risen risen considerably over the last 3 years.

Classified growths would have begun bottling this Summer. Even first growths have begun bottling as early as June in the past. Certainly every vintage and every property is different. Many non classified wines, which are ready to ship, would have already arrived in US and continue arriving through end of year into next. However, some 2018 stocks, and even some 2017s, are not being shipped as quickly as usual due to the tariff, and the prices in the market moving forward for such vintages could be all over the board due to the disruption of the Sales cycle by the tariff and resulting financial pressures.

I dont know about bottling, but I would be expecting the first of my EP purchases from 2018 to go physical after Christmas, I think, typically. That’s London, rather than the States.

Understood. And the most expensive wines you referenced previously would not arrive into the US until 2021. Other ‘18s have been ready to ship, and some merchants have held off doing so because of the tariff. Not sure how much time an importer, distributor, or merchant is afforded to pick up an order given the tariff circumstances. Of course, during pre-tariff times the expectation would be to pick up wine as soon as it was available to ship.