I think the subject line says it all. Was just chatting with some folks about Burgundy, and it got me thinking about how the style of many Bordeauxs these days seems to be in the “Parker profile”. If Parker retired tomorrow, what happens to those wines? Do houses change style? Do they keep the same track? Who becomes the market leader for Bordeaux?
I thought about all the other regions of the world, and there really isn’t one critic that seems to drive the market (although you could say the same about Parker and California, but I think WS has their good share of the market) like Parker does for Bordeaux.
Curious for others’ thoughts, mostly b/c my interest in Bordeaux for personal consumption has faded to black.
Depends what sells. Right now high scores from RP sell futures, so making wine that has a good chance of scoring highly is economically lucrative. If RP were kidnapped by aliens tomorrow, there would be a period of adjustment as people figured out how to find out about good wines (from the retail side) and what provided sell-through (from the winery side). First growths and well known other chateau would coast on rep for a long time. WS would become more important for the US market.
Ideally, we’d see the top wines not command such silly premiums over the next tier down but I think that’s fantasy. It’s sad, because there’s a lot of nice wine made in Bordeaux, but all of the attention goes to 25-50 wines, none of which provide an affordable introduction to the region.
Of course there is no real answer. My guess is the style of Bordeaux wines will not change. Why should they? At least IMO, Bordeaux has never made better wine across the board in vintage after vintage. As for shorting First Growths, that is not a move I’d make. Very few wines would sell well as futures without Bob’s scores. The First Growths and a few other assorted wines that have become brands are in that small group. Right or wrong, there are enough people all over the world who will covet those wines.
Futures will not be as popular. Without Bob’s views, consumers will not feel the need to buy early. They will wait. Prices will not plummet. But they will not spike either. However, wines are so expensive at this point, with few exceptions, that point is almost moot. Investors should consider stocking up on the top wines from previous vintages. Wines that earned high scores from Bob will become more expensive.
It will be harder for consumers to find out about new wines from small areas like Cotes de Castillon, Fronsac or Bordeaux Superieur. Sorry, but IMO, Bob has been the biggest champion of all those small appellations… A few wines will get discovered here and there, but not like when Bob spent so much time focusing on them. He tastes hundreds of those wines every time he is in Bordeaux.
You will also see a bigger spread in prices between the First Growths and branded wines, versus the remainder of Bordeaux. Consumers all over the world, especially in emerging markets will feel safe buying the chateaux they trust.
For those of you thinking this will be great for American consumers, I’m not so sure it will matter. While emerging markets still have yet to take hold, it is only a matter of time until other markets compete for those wines. I have never said current vintages are selling to emerging markets. I do not believe they are selling in large amounts yet. But sooner or later, it will happen. There is a huge trade convention in China this week. Numerous chateaux are represented. The Chinese government is participating. There is another event set up for October. Most of the owners I speak with say, they spend more time promoting to Asia, than they do in America.
Who buys Bordeaux (and what kind)? Who buys Bordeaux on futures (and how much)? Who drinks Bordeaux (and where do they come from)? What is the relationship between the purchaser and the drinker (and what’s the spread on the profit potential)?
These are the fundamental questions in understanding where the market will move towards when Bob Parker is not offering the 1982 classification system (patent pending) alongside the 1855. And make no mistake, as farmers and families continue to sell their Chateau to trusts and multinationals, the market will be the deciding factor in said decisions.
Not a lot of people have accurate figures about these questions which makes prognostication pretty futile. You wouldn’t buy/short a stock without such relevant information, so why bother making judgments about something so opaque?
I think of Wine Spectator being the 2nd name in wine criticism. I know a lot of people (on wine boards) hold James Suckling in high regard but I am not sure how many outside of hard core wine geeks will follow him or recognize him now that he has left. Molesworth is taking over Bordeaux right? As far as I know people have been very happy with his work so maybe it would be Molesworth because he seems to have palate and preference that many identify with and he is in a visible position.
I do think Parker’s preference is towards big wines, I hate to even say this because of the rabid anti-Parker sentiment on this board, so if a critic stepped in that likes a variety of styles and could identify those maybe a diversity would be achieved. If he had a particular preference and wine makers figured it out some would certainly mimic that style.
Life after Parker? it’s very simple…like everything else in life, someone else will replace him in short order as the “expert” and this new person will be the go-to-guy who will drive the market.
I’m still waiting for the “huge” Asian market to generate a critic with a more Zen like taste for simplicity, harmony and things more implied than explicit. 'Twould be almost karmic.
Not always. Look at the art world after Greenberg, probably the critic whose influence would most closely resemble Parker in terms of actively influencing (even over-shadowing) the subject.
Life after Parker? it’s very simple…like everything else in life, someone else will replace him in short order as the “expert” and this new person will be the go-to-guy who will drive the market.
Parker’s 62 and pretty burnt out. Who wouldn’t be with the intensity he has maintained?
His popularity proves that many people feel at ease with the simplicity of the guru system.
Therefore, a new Dalai Lama is waiting in the wings. He will manifest himself when the time is right.
Could the next guru be a guruette? This Korean lady based in China is not only very qualified, she’s also gorgeous… http://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/20080905.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So, pourquoi pas ?
Regarding prices, Parker drives them. I spoke to a negociant who told me he was getting 15 calls a day for Pontet Canet, Malescot St Exupery, Montrose, Lynch Bages and a few other potential 100 pointers that were not priced like Ducru Beaucaillou… At some point in the future, and despite what I think has become Parker grade inflation, the highest Parker numbers will become collectors items much like earlier vintages with 100 points have become.
But if we step back even just a bit from a maniacal obsession with points, then it just may be a good thing. If we talk more about how the wine tastes, what the philosophy behind the winemaking is, where the wine comes from, and less about whether it is a 99 or a 96, I would be rather happy.
Guessing about pricing is another thing. I share criticism that the wines have become way too expensive to bother tying your money down for two plus years. With few exceptions, many 2009s will be available on the shelf for the futures price and could cost even less, depending on where the exchange rate will be of course.
My guess is that will be the final nail in Bordeaux as the top appellation along with Burgundy. Their wines will still be popular, but without an existing system in place, the newer wine regions will fill the void. Odd, because I do think RP champions the new regions. People get stuck in ruts though and there are a lot of people who get so excited about Bordeaux because that is just what they always drink and because every year or so, there is much excitement stirred up in large part by Parker.
It is possible another critic will arise, but I think the more likely answer is that group consensus thru CT, Facebook, and who knows what is coming will take over.
