$175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

[Anton_D]

simply put, if you don’t like it, don’t pay it. bitching and moaning isn’t going to make them drop their price… put up or shut up.

Why can’t they comment and speculate?

I say, if you don’t like people complaining about prices, shut up and close the thread.

Thanks for the Abe Simpsons platitudes, though.

[Victor_Hong]

simply put, if you don’t like it, don’t pay it. bitching and moaning isn’t going to make them drop their price… put up or shut up.

Why can’t they comment and speculate?

I say, if you don’t like people complaining about prices, shut up and close the thread.

Thanks for the Abe Simpsons platitudes, though.

Agreed.

[Anton_D]

How are expensive California wines selling at Binnys? Isn’t that the test?

They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny’s are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.

Cult wines are dead at retail?

For me, above the century mark is a “special consideration wine.” I get a few, but the farther and farther one goes down that price drain, the faster one spins!

What these highest end wines really need is a more supportive forum so like minded oenophiles can froth each other up and prop up the market.

[Anton_D]

simply put, if you don’t like it, don’t pay it. bitching and moaning isn’t going to make them drop their price… put up or shut up.

Why can’t they comment and speculate?

I say, if you don’t like people complaining about prices, shut up and close the thread.

Thanks for the Abe Simpsons platitudes, though.

Agreed.

Well, you well know the proven value of offensive, uncomfortable, and hostile speech!

[Hao_Lu]

Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population.

[NickRut]

It actually does seem like more wineries are getting into this space. I cannot imagine they’ve done that without some level of financial modeling to predict the sales impact. The increase in bottles would indicate that this wine is selling just fine and that it makes business sense to enter that segment of the market. I can’t foresee a major drop or stall in pricing until something changes where people stop buying in mass.

[Alan_Eden]

Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population.

You mean like people on this forum ?

[Victor_Hong]

Touche.

[R_M_Kriete]

My wife and I earn healthy incomes, even by California standards, and I still find it very hard to buy any wine pushing $100. I know “value” is based on personal, subjective standards, but when do diminishing returns set in!!! I can drink a wine for $50, I enjoy it, I’m not likely to love a wine for $75 that much more to justify the added cost. I’m not even touching Napa cabs for this very reason.

• 1000

[Blair_Ridley]

They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny’s are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.

Wow - if Binny’s is just making that move now, they’re well behind the curve. Most stores near me shifted toward craft beer and spirits/bourbon a couple of years ago.

@ Kevin McEvoy - Best post on the thread! I’m with you 100% — so much so that we may be outbidding each other lol. As long as one likes aged wines, going the auction route for the classics like you listed (most available ~$100 or less per bottle) is awesome.

[blarmston]

“Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population”

No way, haven’t you heard Ben and Janet and now Jerome over the years? The FED’s QE has NOT contributed to income and wealth inequality over the years. Rising tides have lifted ALL boats! (sarcasm alert)

[Craig_G]

“Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population”

No way, haven’t you heard Ben and Janet and now Jerome over the years? The FED’s QE has NOT contributed to income and wealth inequality over the years. Rising tides have lifted ALL boats! (sarcasm alert)

No, it’s true. It’s just that only the rich tend to have boats.

[Alan_Eden]

They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny’s are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.

Wow - if Binny’s is just making that move now, they’re well behind the curve. Most stores near me shifted toward craft beer and spirits/bourbon a couple of years ago.

I often get attacked for my awful grammar, in this case its your awful reading !!!

[Keith_A_k_e_r_s]

How are expensive California wines selling at Binnys? Isn’t that the test?

They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny’s are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.

which manager(s) and at which stores? Because I have an extremely hard time believing this. I worked for Binnys for almost a decade and I still have plenty of relationships and I haven’t heard anything of the sort. Wine is still their biggest seller by a large margin and they make the most amount of margin on wine. So, I’m calling shenanigans on this.

edit: I don’t want to talk about this on a public forum, so if you want to talk about it further, I will only do this via PM

[Peter_Valiquette]

I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.

[blarmston]

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.

And that demographic cannot sustain the industry forever. As they age, there is less of a propensity to purchase and consume high end bottlings. As they age and get deeper into retirement, inflation really chips away at lifestyle and purchasing power. They will be less willing (and able) to drop $1K for a six pack of quality mid tier Napa juice.

Stagflation is coming. Slow to negative growth of sales coupled with rising input costs. Wineries will either choose to take it on the chin by not raising prices, or risk losing customers by passing those costs along. It’ll be a downward reinforcing feedback loop. I hope I’m wrong but there’s a decent chance that I won’t be.

[Scott_Brunson]

Somms don’t drive the market.
Hipsters certainly don’t drive the market.
People with disposable income drive the market.

Napa will be fine.

(but I have dropped more than a few–I don’t have unlimited disposable income).

[GregT]

I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.

Would those be somms with plenty of tattoos who passed some kind of test but haven’t any experience with wines beyond ten-fifteen years?

Part of the job of a somm is to keep up with what’s happening in the market so they’re always trying to find the next cool thing. But the main part of their job is to get wines that people will buy and like. And if wines are over $300, it’s not just Napa that those millennial hipsters aren’t buying.

[Anton_D]

I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.

The younger “fun factor” and ‘experience’ crowd are a great new phenomenon. I have no issue with that new social phenomenon.

I can also see somms might get sick of giant Parkerized fruit bombs and food pairing, leaning back toward classic structures.

Napa still seems to be doing OK. Just so long as people have a way to let other people know the cache of the wine they are drinking, the upper end market should survive. Social signalling will prolong the high end’s life span.

[John_Morris]

Just so long as people have a way to let other people know the cache[t] of the wine they are drinking, the upper end market should survive. Social signalling will prolong the high end’s life span.

Thorsten Veblen lives, and he’s following this thread closely.