Any frost worries in the long term forecast?
There are always frost worries. Those usually happen in April - a long time from now!
I was in Bonny Doon yesterday and saw a few small leaves on chardonnay!
I read a couple of articles on the current state of Californiaâs drought. It appears that more rainfall - and soon - is needed to help push the state back to normal levels.
AgWest
âDry January Takes a Toll on Promising Start to Water Yearâ
by Brian German
February 3, 2022
"The second manual snow survey for the current water year demonstrated the impact that dry conditions in January have had on Californiaâs snowpack. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) conducted the survey at Phillips Station earlier in the week. While the measurements were relatively strong, there is still concern for the rest of the season as statewide water storage levels sit at about 76 percent of average.
"âFor our survey today, we recorded a snow depth of 48.5 inches and a snow water content of 19 inches. That results in 109 percent of average to date and 78 percent of the April 1 average here at this location,â said Sean de Guzman, Manager of DWRâs Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit. âThat one dry month of January basically wiped out whatever head start we had as we head towards the end of winter. We still have about two more months to build up our snowpack, but we all need to be prepared for a third consecutive dry year.â
"The measurement taken at Phillips Station is a bit higher than the overall statewide average. de Guzman explained that the storms that came through California in December essentially centered on the region. âOur statewide snowpack is currently sitting at 92 percent of average to date as of this morning based off our automated snow sensor network,â de Guzman noted.
"The Category 5 atmospheric river that came through California in October provided a positive start to the water year. That was followed up by a dry November. de Guzman said that December snowfall pushed the snowpack well above average. Now, following an exceptionally dry January, the need for significant storm events in the coming months becomes more dire.
ââThe first half of February will be pretty dry. We wonât really see much of any big snowfall or rainfall over the next two weeks,â said de Guzman. âWe will need to see a return of those winter storms during February and during March to really keep track and remain right around normal.â"
CA Dept Water Resources
âDry January Conditions Return Snowpack to Near Average Levelsâ
Published: Feb 01, 2022
"âŚIn light of last yearâs poor runoff, DWR has increased its efforts to improve climate and runoff forecasting by strengthening its collaboration with partner agencies and academia and by investing in proven technologies to improve data collection and hydrologic modeling. One example is DWRâs investment in remote snowpack measurements through the Aerial Remote Sensing of Snow program by partnering with Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc. (ASO). Data from ASO has proven to be the most accurate assessment of snowpack conditions that, when coupled with newer, sophisticated runoff models, will improve runoff forecast accuracy.
âAlthough early season storms helped alleviate some drought impacts, a lack of storms in January has underscored the need for Californians to continue focusing on conservation. Most of Californiaâs reservoirs are still below average, and groundwater supplies are still recovering. California still has two months left of its typical wet season and will require more storms in those months to end the year at average.â
It has been raining pretty steadily but moderately. Now it appears to have stopped. There is snow on the Palisades Mountains across from my place!
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At 6 am today the temperature had slid down to 28 degrees - thatâs cold up here!
Any fr#st issues anyone?
Cheers.
NOAA says it was 24 at the Paso Robles airport this morning. Certainly there must be a certain amount of budbreak in the area? Even if vines are at pencil eraser stage, 24 would zap those buds.
No budbreak hereâŚa bit early for that. It looks like we are moving away from sub-freezing temperatures, which for comfort is a really good thing (and those power bills). Looks like a chance of showers later in the week - very welcome.
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Buds are still tight in Marin. Some bell beans look like they got frost scorched, but so far, so good.
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Itâs raining, and pretty steadily. It is close to 50 degrees at 6 in the morning, and was warm all yesterday. Should result in an even soak. if only 1/2 inch.
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Every little bit helps.
We are expecting just a touch of rain tomorrow, and as David said, every little bit helps for sure . . .
Iâve managed to quit the weather thread cold turkey.
Lynne and I are moving to AZ April 19 and obviously Iâve been pretty busy sorting things out, going to Goodwill etc.
Some observations:
This drought is a trainwreck. Basically, no rain over the past 2+ months, and THIS is our rainy season. Although we got off to such a a great start with big rains in late October, we are in sorry shape. The state water cops are already shutting off farmers in the valley. Cali isnât going to have enough water to grow FOOD this year, let alone wine grapes.
Iâve flipped the switch in my brain. Last year I would wake up at night worrying about how we were going to navigate the drought, this year Iâm not. I didnât really think I could do it, but I have and the situation is even worse than last year.
The grape market has rebounded in a big way. This might be the first time in a decade that all of our grapes are presold out before April 1. Iâve been trying to assist my replacement Matt with extending contracts out for a few years. Prices have really gone up.
Speaking of prices. Matt is planning on another field of Gruner in '23. He decided to purchase the trellis materials for that 2.7 acre field now so that they would be on hand and the guys can work on it when things are slow. It cost $12k for the stakes, end posts and wire for a 2.7 acre plantingâŚTHATS crazy. What price will he be able to sell that fruit for? All prices of everything have jumped. I bought a gallon of paint this week, so when we move out my guy can do some touch upâŚ$78 for ONE gallon of paint?
I wish all of the industry folks the best luck this year, its gonna be tough.
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Hope your retirement and new digs suit you, along with no more weather worries! Many thanks for all your great insights over the seasons.
Glad that youâve been able to shut it off, Casey, and hope retirement is good for you and Lynne. This year doesnât look easy.
-Al
My single vine of table grapes has tiny green leaves - a sure sign that the Cabernet is soon to follow.
Going to do a couple of replants this spring to replace 3-4 failed vines. Not a bad failure rate for vines planted in 1988, 1995, and 2002.
The vineyard is still waiting for a mow and disk - should be happening this week. All in all, things look good. My place received 2 rainfalls so far this year, and for sure, every little bit helps.
When it comes to farming, my glass is half full, not half empty.
Well I was right. Reading some at news and the Central Valley took a hellofa hit with frost in late February. Many almond growers trying to figure out how much loss. I guess they need another month to see which blooms/nuts fall off but estimates are 40-60% loss. Apparently 5 counties are preparing for a disaster declaration. Possible bright spot: maybe they wonât irrigate as much, as almonds are well known for huge water needs.
We did get a fair amount of rain late yesterday. Every little bit helps. Today the temperatures are moderate: not cold but not as warm as many of the previous days have been.
The vineyard looks good with its mow and disk, plus weed digging between the vines. Now we are ready for budbreak, but no rush. I frequently say April is the cruelest month, because we frequently have frosty nights/early mornings, and they are a threat to new buds just emerging on the vines. Fingers crossed - no budbreak yet.
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Glad you are at least getting some rain.