I agree with your points and my comment was based on a working assumption of many buyers at auction. But if there’s only one or two, then certainly what I stated above wouldn’t apply, and yes, there would potentially be the opportunity to do very well–as you have done.
First off, I see plenty of CA wines that only go up in price.
Second, if the secondary market isn’t recognizing an increased value of maturity of a wine, don’t expect that fact to suddenly change. Don’t expect current releases of those wines to appreciate in price. Don’t expect them to be a good investment. That doesn’t mean you may not have a good reason to buy them. We live in a buy high, sell low culture.
This disparity is a clear sign we are talking about different markets. The supply of a current release of a wine is much much larger than the supply in the secondary market. Of course, we know some wines that are clearly bought as investments and are omnipresent at auction. Also, distributors may dump unsold wines of one vintage to make room for the next. Culty producers will control the supply that gets out into the market and adjust production volume to the market, to keep their margins huge.
Of course auctions are a great place to look for deals. They are also a great place to get carried away and over-pay for one of those omnipresent investment wines. Some smaller ponds are great, some are too-good-to-be-true in one way or another. Another way to find deals is to know things the other buyers don’t. Of course, that’s for looking for great wines to drink, not resell.
This hurts the most