Henry… Great post, thoughtful and reasonable.
Some feedback on a few points. Nothing I post should be construed as recommending buying or waiting.
Year after year, even in bad years, we are told how great these vintages are, how they trump the previous vintage(s), and how you don’t want to miss out on buying these legendary wines
Wines are, or at least they should be looked at and tasted for their character, and at the top end, their uniqueness of character. Character and quality, while related, are not the same metric. Today, with the knowledge vignerons have, and the willingness to ruthlessly declassify, it is very difficult to have a bad vintage. Historically, until the '80s, at most, 2 vintages per decade were collectible, maybe less. Today, clearly, that is not the case.
Year after year, prices go up.
Everything goes up year after year. But unlike most luxury goods, estates cannot produce more wine. In fact, they often make less. Sooner or later, the supply-demand curve moves as more people covet the same wines., so prices rise
Paraphrasing something you said a while ago, but no chateau ever think they produce bad wine, and there’s no price so high that they would ever be satisfied
You are missing the last sentence, which is that no price is ever low enough for the consumer 
With inflation at 5, 10%, with two years before wine is bottled, it needs to return 10-20% for it to be a useful outlay of capital, otherwise, why wouldn’t you just wait until it is in bottle?
A reasonable conjecture. Though as I pointed out in my previous post, there are numerous reasons why wine prices will adjust up or down, or stay the same. Perhaps more importantly, you can always use that logic until you want to pop a cork. If you wait 10 years, will that wine be worth 50% more, 100% more, or if it stays the same, does it matter? IMO, once the money is spent, unless I want to resell it, I do not care what I paid, or what the bottle is worth. I simply want the wine in my glass.
But when you can get 2018, 2019, 2020 all at a significant discount to 2022, why would you buy it? (As mentioned above, in some cases like Carmes, BC, there are compelling reasons)
As a semi-reformed wine-buying addict, there are many reasons to buy. Obsessive compulsion disorder 
Collector already bought those vintages. They want the style of 2022 in their glass. They have the money now and know they will blow it on something else if they do not buy the wine. Some people just like collecting.
Personally, I would almost wish that the chateau who can afford it do away with the pretense of en primeur. At the high end, it translates entirely into risk for the purchaser, with significant chance of no reward.
The easy solution for the consumer is to pass. It accomplishes the same thing.
For me, personally, if critics were more reserved with their praise, and a stellar year (hypothetically) like 2022 comes out, I would be less concerned about the price rises.
That depends on who you read, or not. Frankly, the best thing for consumers is when a trusted critic raves about a wine, putting their name and reputation out there for the wines that move them! As for the wines, the truth of the matter is, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022 make a remarkable string of high-quality vintages. Until now, the best consumers were rewarded with were back-to-back vintages. 28-29, 59-61. 89-90, 09/10.
Lafite makes their wines all in for less than like 50 euros a bottle. 10% increase in the cost of production won’t explain the 15-35% increase in the cost of Lafite this year.
Cost is not relevant. All that matters is supply and demand. The same for every luxury good. Though Lafite could make the argument they are losing money. My guess is that Lafite could find multiple buyers for the estate at 9 or 10 Billion dollars or more. The rate of return they are making on a holding of that value is not very much.
As you and I discussed a few weeks ago even - its capitalism. Chateau can set whatever price they want for their wine. Consumers can not buy it, move their demand to other regions, or wait until bottled and prices drop. Well, that’s exactly what’s happening. https://www.liv-ex.com/2023/06/en-primeur-update-unrelenting-soar/
Sadly, there are few advantages to getting older. One is having bought stuff cheaper. As a bit of history, I started buying with 95 futures. First Growths were $125. In 1994, 90 First Growths were in the store at $100. By 2000, they were $250. I was shocked prices jumped that fast. But I purchased them. 2005 First Growths were $500-$550. Haut Brion came out first at $375. HB was the last First I purchased. 2009 was the last vintage I really jumped on as futures, though I bought some 2010, a bit more 2015, and then some 2016. That was it.
I am sure over the years, I made a killing! But I bought to drink, so when purchasing my thought has always been, is the wine priced at a level I can afford to drink? Not a smart strategy, but it worked.
Today, there are some wines I would buy as futures, some I would wait and grab on release, and others I would pass on. You seem thoughtful, educated, and into it. But wine appreciation is more than economics. It is about pleasure and passion, which is not always on the same page as economics.
I am not sure why Bordeaux is always about price, and other regions get a pass. But that is how the game has been and is played. I do not care. It is simply an observation.
if EP was such a good deal every year that it was a no brainer, there’d be 0 interest whatsoever in the sort of stats and insight we produce over at my website
I can tell you that with 2000 futures, you could double your money in less than 30 days. Prices jumped that quickly. The Bordelais left a ton of money on the table. With few exceptions, that never happened again. They deserve the money, not the consumers. That being said, that does not mean consumers need to buy futures either. It is a 2 way street where buyer and seller need to profit. Else, why bother?
I think we’ll see LLC release at a ridiculous price this year.
There are numerous reasons for that, some of it is about the wine, some of it is because they have a new President that wants LLC to have more respect in the marketplace and they have a new multi-year marketing plan.
Retailers don’t make their money if wines don’t sell - they aren’t looking out for our vested interests. Chateau ban critics if they don’t publish generous scores.
Retailers have until the end of the year to pay, and some get terms allowing them to pay on delivery. Very few chateaux ban tasters for low scores. It does happen. But not that often. I do not agree with it. Some writers are banned, but it is not for their scores. It is deeper than that.
Many of the practises we see in the wine industry would be outright banned in regulated markets.
Really? Maybe you are right. But in a capitalist society, what practices would be banned?
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