Reddit post on collecting wine

WINE TALK
21

I think this post is fairly sensible, it’s just not for us. It was better than I expected for Reddit, as a more general audience board (though maybe I need to take a look over there!). What seems really surprising to me are the implications of this. I.e. there are a large number of buyers building 500+ bottle cellars who aren’t wine geeks, don’t do much research, perhaps aren’t so price sensitive, and make decisions based on low quality sources (e.g. pretty wine magazines, Suckling scores, and retail sales guys).

The funny thing is - I bet we Berserkers would be salivating (literally) over the stuff the cellar middlemen won’t touch - way below release price Rieslings, Zinfandels, California Syrahs, Alto Adige Nebbiolos, Napa Cabs, from anyone other the top 5 or 10 names, etc. etc. Where does all that stuff go? K&L, Winebid, Envoyer?

@Neal - yes that one confused me, doesn’t really make a ton of sense.

22

I know a guy that buys cellar and lots of times i will get calls for that random stuff. He will take the unopen cases of Bordeaux and Burgundy and stuff. Last year i was able to pick up a couple cases of midd 2000’s bedrock and carlisle. For were does it go if the cellar is big enough the guy i know will buy it all but just offer almost nothing for the stuff you listed. And the people selling want it gone.

23

Makes sense Matt. A good friend to know!

24

Seems reasonable for all points. You do want to establish a long term relationship with someone you can trust and continue to buy from for your investment portfolio. Doesn’t make sense to save a little money with completely new seller when it comes to investment.

For people who buy to drink, some points do apply even for different reasons.

25

It is still amazing to me how there is some perceived pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that some folks think about when they buy wine. This is a particularly stupid bet in to the future as all indicators are that millennials are not looking to collect wine, even if they have the means. China appears to have their own issues currently and famously they are a culture that likes to gamble. Hong Kong? I would be very nervous now as a Hong Kong collector if I were relying on this as some sort of nest egg. That leaves the relative handful of billionaire collectors that trade the stuff like impressionist paintings. I know I am never going to be able to buy those, and don’t really miss them. High end bordeaux has hit a relative wall of price/value, Burgundy eventually will too. Best I can hope for is for some of my wines to retains some value if the grim reaper comes knocking at my door earlier than I expect. Keeping records? Ha! That is a problem my heirs will have to figure out on their own. Wine is the one thing I do that i could care less about the $$ I spent and what they are “worth” day by day. I have a 401 K for that.

26

Most of the money I’ve made flipping wine has been on stuff I faked. That’s where the real money is.

27

Still laughing [cheers.gif]

28

Did you buy this to drink or resell it?

29

Funny, and not funny [wow.gif] Wonder how those folks who bought the old scotch felt when it was tested and found to be fake. It would be very interesting to see how many older fake bottles of wine are floating around the auction markets. Too bad there is no equivalent wine testing method.

30

This, exactly. Unless you are in one of a half a dozen gilt-edged billionaire Burgundies fine wine is not going to appreciate a ton over the long term. I am pretty confident that I could liquidate my cellar for a solid 80-85% of what I spent on it, which is OK downside insurance for something I own in order to consume, but look at what e.g. the top 2016 Bordeaux prices are doing – very little growth despite consensus it is a great vintage and a 25% tariff to spur price appreciation.

31

I buy to drink, not sell. What I like to drink has changed significantly over the years so I am glad I didn’t go “all in” on any one wine or any one vintage. I would have been loaded up with wine and still have nothing to drink. I suspect that I am one of the older guys on this board (no wisecracks from those that know me please) and I have been working my inventory down for several years. Rarely do I hold more than 500 bottles now. Consumption and purchases are about equal each year (~300) so inventory levels don’t vary much. Wine is just one of the things in my house that my children won’t want. My intention is to gradually reduce my inventory to about 250 bottles of really good, drink now wine and hold that level. That way, maybe what is left will find a home but try finding a home for 1,000 or more bottles. There aren’t many homes available.

32

I use it as the base for my LaLa counterfeits.
Kidding aside, like many here I’ve never sold a bottle.

33

I was actually prepared to hate it, but there is sound advice there. Number 5, 7 and 10 are particularly important (and tied together).

A lot of people aren’t prepared for the haircut they need to take on most of the wine in their cellar if it comes time to sell. When you have a few thousand bottles, it makes sense not to overload on stuff that you don’t think you’ll drink in a reasonable number of years. Monitoring consumption and redistribution of space has forced me to buy less than I would of some wines than I otherwise would while making space for others.

34

I agree too, it seems like a sensible piece, from someone who has had to disappoint many families and executors with dollars & commas in their dreams.

I also agree with Alfert’s comment on ‘owning the provenance’ which is good logic for cellaring one’s own favorite estates, even if it hardly makes econ sense. The reddit author is right on about the stickies in particular, but even there, even with dessert wines being a bit ‘tougher’ than dry reds, I’d still rather wear the storage risk myself. There’s enough disappointment with multi decade cellaring, and adding to it by backfilling doesn’t help.

35

I have to fake it too, when I smile politely and nod my head, when people pour me Vin Jaune.

36

This is pretty sound advice. When Reddit Wine hits the levels of Reddit NBA, WB is in serious trouble :crazy_face:

37

The Reddit post strips away any rationalization that our cellars represent an “investment”. It is also exactly what I would love to show someone after I made a (lowball) offer for their cellar. [snort.gif]

38



+1

Seems very astute and thorough for people who are buying in the hope of seeing their wines appreciating substantially. Lots of illusions punctured here that needed puncturing.

39

FIFY - My very good inside sources advise me that it is really, really bad, even worse than reported. Streets are deserted, businesses are shut down with the expectation that it will last at least two months, schools are shut until at last May and major international businesses are not functioning. Luxury items are easy to avoid under those conditions.

40

It’s even a mess here. Houston’s massive and vibrant (and exceptionally tasty) Chinatown is really suffering as people irrationally stay away from Chinese-immigrant-operated restaurants, stores, and malls. It’s sad.