Nope, it’s you! 
Same here, seeing lots of random ad links.
Indeed. As a component of the internal price of the wine. But as equal or more overall is the roaring economy. And small amount of wine that comes out of Napa as a percent of the total.
Yet there are a few things wrong with the government 2% annual number. If one looks at the cost of gasoline (up 100%) over the last 5 years, healthcare (up 100% for those not subsidized), home costs (up 30% nationwide and 80% in California), etc, college costs up 40%, average grocery bills up 20-50%… something is amiss with the so-called “government data.”
There is a guy who tracks inflation costs as government USE TO calculate it, who shows under those metrics, what we would be looking at if the way these numbers use to be calculated, were still used. He also does this for GDP and unemployment. It’s a cool site to peruse.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
The other part of the bad news for wine costs is that wine is starting to enter the “luxury good” area and goods in that sector are not going up with inflation, but much higher. Last time I saw this was 2007, which should give everyone pause.
I have no issue with my growers raising to $15,000+, as I think the fruit is worth that. But one certain grower kind of messed up life for everyone by doing a 175x bottle price per ton formula for their fruit and, when everyone did not abandon that grower, it sent a signal to every other grower in Napa that they were leaving profits on the table.
But if one looks at the delayed reaction to that 175x price, one will see some of the best wineries that bought that fruit have been sold recently and the new buyers of those wineries are taking fruit IN HOUSE and eschewing that formula and the vineyard in question. Now they have access to estate fruit and in time they will leave the ultra-high priced vineyard owners in some cases. So the massive fruit price is now finally seeing a backlash, starting at the top. The average grower has not experienced this yet in its wake. But they will in the next recession. I smell a peak.
Another killer is the cost of labor in the vineyard. When it was illegal, pot farms in Mendocino were telling undocumented workers they would pay them 50% more than what vineyard managers would pay them, and do so without any need for proof of documentation. This really was causing issues from 2014-2017. Good full time vineyard workers in Napa can make $35,000-55,000 per year now. Add in disability insurance, which can be 20-30% of their salary for vineyard workers, and healthcare, which averages $8000-15,000 per worker and their family in CA now, plus SSDI… the cost of vineyard work is up 50% or more the last few years. No way are vineyard owners not passing that on.
I think Roy’s wines are great. But he’s not the only one raising prices in Napa, seems every producer is doing the same. If you want to pay for it, by all means. I support free market capitalism. But every time I see a price hike in Napa I keep pivoting towards Bordeaux. Lots of great second growths can be backfilled for well under $200 all-in.
If I have my numbers right, 175x bottle price means that fruit cost is roughly 30% of the full retail price of the bottle. Seems like that means you better be able to sell every bottle direct. A wholesale price would probably be break even at best.
Notice how when BDX was killing it for vintages 2009 and 2010 that prices here in NV did not move much at all. BDX did much better in those vintages than Napa did and it was their prices that were going up fast. Then, they ran into some troublesome vintages when Napa was having excellent ones and that shifted the ball back to Napa. I’ve seen that dynamic for some time. Probably not for the last time.
Yep. On all counts.
I posted a video blog about this a year ago. Since I make and sell the wine myself, I don’t have to pay another winemaker and then someone to sell it. Those that do have staff for that NEED to sell direct. All of it, if possible. Until you are at $300+, at which point you basically are printing money.
Even at wholesale. Many of the longtime 99-100pt wines now sell their wine wholesale at … drumroll… full… retail… price… to the wholesaler, who then marks it up and the the restaurant marks it up again. At that point it becomes almost impossible not to make money. But we are talking about maybe a dozen producers like that in all of America.
I am unfortunately not on the list. But from the reviews of those I know who are lucky enough to have Roy’s wine in their cellar, it continues to be a steal at the new price.
I love the fact that Roy was willing to explain his point of view in a straight forward, non-defensive manner. I am a capitalist and believe that every business owner has the right to set their own price. As Roy says, the market will speak in reaction. I expect it will have no impact on his sales.
I know they’re not the same as Napa cabs, but in Sonoma County and Santa Cruz County you can get fabulous wines at much better prices; for example:
2014 Dehlinger Cab is $50, the Reserve is $60 direct.
2016 Ridge MB is $125 on release direct.
It’s just crazy to pay $175 to $250 per bottle when there are so many other alternatives available from CA. When the next recession hits, demand for all those high priced Cabs is going to evaporate.
Larry wow you are being Debbie Downer ! Your statement obviously says it all " I know they’re not the same as Napa cabs " No they are not. The fruit from the vineyards that Roy is purchasing is very expensive and some of the best in Napa Valley. I know of very few people that would claim that the Russian River Valley Dehlinger is equal to the finest Napa cab. On the other hand if you were talking about Pinot, that’s prime territory. If you ignore critics scores and look at CT scores the Piper is a better wine. I am sure the Dehlinger is a good wine and maybe a better value to you. There are also wines such as Abreu Bryant Maya at twice the price or more, which may or may not be better than the PIper.
The Ridge MB is definitely a top notch wine, but your price is only applicable, not just by buying direct, but by buying on futures, being a member of the wine club, AND being required to buy a selection of their other wines to be in the club. Because of the hostage wines that I really dont need I have not joined the club. You have conveniently left this detail out.
If you dont think the value is there, fine done buy it, but to state that others are crazy is imposing your views on others. If you think that a high end cab cant sell 400 cases during a recession think again. Mercedes still sells cars during recessions, Per Se didn’t go out of business either during the last one. The upper end of the market always has money.
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Good recommendation. I have done business with David the owner several times and he runs a great store.
It’s time for some unhappy customers to move on and make room for those of waiting on the list.
Thanks, Dennis. I appreciate the tip.
Jonathan,
The Ridge Monte Bello collector program has no requirement to buy “hostage wines” other than the Monte Bello, yes you pay for it in the spring following harvest but with interest rates where they are that adds maybe $1 to the cost. If you like well made Cabernet there’s no reason not to join the list.
I’ve tried many of the high end Napa cabs and by my estimation there are dozens that sell in the $175 to $300 range. The model of paying big $/ton for grapes works in our current Goldilocks economy but with so many great cabs available at a fraction of the cost it doesn’t seem sustainable. 17% annual increases in cost is huge when that compounds annually.
Clearly my opinion and clearly others like you don’t share it.
good for Roy 
if he can make it work, cheers
an ocean of wine out there for sure
“Napa” has that panache that many yearn $$$$
125 for Ridge MB? What kind of Daddy Warbucks can pay 125 a bottle, for wine? There are plenty of great wines out their for 20 bucks that you crazy kids don’t buy because they are only 20 bucks. Status buyers is all you are, feeling some compulsive need to say you paid 60-125 bucks for a bottle of stinking grape juice, for crying out loud.
No wine should cost a penny more than 20 bucks, but if you want to piss money away, what do I care, even though you are wrong to do it.
_
“Crazy” price levels begin where a person decides for herself/himself. You buying Ridge MB is 71% as stupid as me buying Piper. Are you simply claiming that by buying under a certain price pooint, you win something?
This is all for the sake of banter, I buy Piper and love it, you can love what you buy and I am in favor of that, too! ![[cheers.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/0/0ff9bfcdb0964982cd3240b6159868fbdf215b1a.gif "cheers"){kind=small}
Ignoring your other points…I don’t think you’re right on this one. In fact I have an email in my inbox ahead of the last MB release on this very issue as I queried it (because I couldn’t remember what the deal was), and to secure my MB futures I had to purchase some of the Estate wines. Not that I have any issue with that, I love all Ridge.
Wow you guys can get really emotional about wine. My post was in response to th OPs post where he asked:
“Doesnt it reach a point where buyers dry up, it seems that some people are selling out but the $150 + wines do seem to be more easily available with a few exceptions.
Are we going to reach a ceiling or prices just going to increase continually ?”
I’m all in on buying whatever you want, at whatever price point you want. My comment is not about any one wine, it’s about the ultra premium Napa Cab category of wine where grapes cost $15,000 per ton. Given the alternatives, my opinion is that 10-20% annual increases in the category is not sustainable.
The only Ridge wine I buy every year is the MB and I am a member of the MB Collector club. I’ve been buying it for awhile. Just go to the website and sign up to the MB Collector program if you are interested in that wine.