Meh…if it takes you 5 shots to make the green, the best putt in the world is still a bogey.
Given the issues the Valley was having with powdery mildew this time last year, it should probably be pointed out that if you lose your ball in grape growing-you’re done for the year. No putting necessary.
I have a lot of respect for both Jason and Jim, but we grossly under respect the framework that’s laid out in the early season.
In large part because summer temperatures tend to be consistent, and if you stay vigilant, much of the process is generally smooth, we weigh that time period as less important than the few weeks of the growing season, where the variability of weather causes more sleeplessness for growers and cellar staff. Cluster physiology matters a lot, in my opinion. It’s an early difference maker, and I fail to see how weather at bloom can only be 5-10% of impact. Even less the idea that the last 30 day are 90-95% of expression. A game winning three pointer only matters if your team is down by 2 or less. However, that shot is what gets remembered and shown on the news.
But this year we do have a very positive framework in place. The loose clusters mean that disease pressure will be lessened. The smaller crop load insures that even with a currently cool summer we are unlikely to have a particularly late vintage. And a lot of what has already occurred sets us up for the potential to have wines with excellent concentration and still be balanced with flavor and acidity.
It’s extremely likely that being on point for picks will be absolutely necessary. Small crop and healthy canopy, would have the potential to elevate Brix quickly.
And while Jim may only like 2012, I like all of the vintages that have evolved from early seasons similar to this-regardless of how the last 30 days went. I would note that the last 30 days of 2010 were mostly in October, and the last 30 days of 2012 were mostly in September. Meaning that the days previous to the last thirty made quite a difference.
Great thread, thanks for starting it Marcus. I think you recapped things really nicely.
Looking back, this is the coolest season since 2012, which is mistakenly called a hot year. If you compare 2012 and 2002, heat accumulation was almost identical. It just got hot at the end in 2012, so things got overripe really quickly. Jim’s right that the last 30 days really mean the most. Great years can be spoiled right at the end. But Marcus is right that even the best end might not make up for a rough summer. For me, I’ll take pretty much anything as long as harvest weather is mild and cool.
I really like Todd’s point about the best vintages seeing the hottest weather in August. I’ll have to dig into that more but I like the idea. For me, the best vintages have cooler and or wetter springs that make sure we’re not setting fruit too early. If day 40 from fruit set is in early July, hot summers seem to affect things different than if day 40 is closer or into August, where days are already getting a bit shorter and the intensity of summer is beginning to wane, even a bit. Perhaps more importantly, harvest in late September into October more likely will be cooler mornings, less intense heat if we see heat, compared to picking in early September. In 2012, we picked in early October but we had hot, dry east winds really dehydrating things. By contrast, in 2015 when we started picking on Labor Day, but we actually had a mild week that saved the sugar levels in the grapes from running away from us. I picked a lot in that window of Sept 5-10 in 2015. So there are exceptions, but I generally want fruit set in mid to later June and picking to be later September to early October.
bruced, on the hens and chicks question, no I don’t believe bitterness is an issue. Really it cuts average cluster weights so that your yield per acre is down, perhaps by a lot. Some clones are predisposed to it, namely Swan, in part which is why Joe Swan selected it. I’ve long read that hens and chicks are prized in burgundy but I find them challenging sometimes because the chicks can turn to mush in rainy harvests and be a VA vector, or otherwise bring too much intensity, even jamminess, in the hottest years where they’re like an overcooked thin cut of steak. When things are just right, then there’s magic.
Final thought - though growers don’t want to hear it, if there’s ever a year where we should welcome a lighter crop, this is it.
I don’t find them to be much more bitter. But sugars in wine grapes are significantly higher than in table grapes.
You can’t, to my knowledge, shoot for them. Hens and chicks happen for a range of reasons, this year most likely weather conditions at bloom. I generally enjoy the wines resulting from vintages where this occurred.
It was really hot at the end of 2002, and things got over ripe quickly. We picked a ton of fruit from Maurice Colada’s place after he had more fruit than Russ could take. Finished abv on the fruit was 14.9%. (And my first serious lesson that pick date was everything)
In 2012, we started picking September 12, and were done with Pinot Noir by the 20th. So your last 30 days are very different from mine.
I would guess that makes these conversations a bit harder to pin down.
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Are you sure those pick dates are from 2012? I was literally on a sales trip in NY around the 25th and the SE Wine Collective had the pre-harvest grand opening party maybe the 28th? First Pinot for me on Oct 2 in 2012, admittedly I would pick earlier now but not three weeks earlier. Maybe that’s the Goodfellow secret and I want in!
Not too early to know that in lots/many/most places tonnages are off to way off. Worden Hill Rd. sites (I have 2) seem to be okay and have enough clusters to make up for smaller cluster size. Ribbon Ridge sites (I have 4) are on the edge a bit. Some stuff under 2 tons/acre, some stuff a bit over, nothing I would say is close to 3. Breyman Orchard Rd. sites are as low in some spots as 1-1.25 tons/acre in my opinion with tiny clusters with 20-30 berries and oft times just a few/vine. Going to see Freedom Hill tomorrow but reports are they are down from their normal carrying capacity and he is hoping to come in at 2 tons/acre (that site handles 3 or more with no problem). My Chehalem Mountains AVA sites range from okay-ish to really, really low.
After 9 vintages of mostly okay to massive tonnages this is one that could be a real strain for some growers. Not everyone for sure but for folks selling on by the ton contracts it could be painful (and for those of us buying on by the acre contracts COGS are headed up).
Tonnages are modest for me for sure, but clusters and counts are similar to 2012. With the cooler weather holding until recently, and very good balance in canopy, it seems like the potential for quality is good. And while I am almost exclusively on acreage, so costs are indeed up, I am cautiously optimistic right now.
Especially since there has been considerable increase in plantings over the past 10 years. Hopefully, everyone is finding a home for their fruit, and I just doubt that would be true if it were a larger set. I feel lucky to have the support we have enjoyed over the past few years.
Regarding Breiman Orchard Rd., my yields at Durant have stabilized since we went to no-till. My feeling with our Pinot Noir block there is we will be between 2-2.25 tons/acre, provided we lose no fruit to botrytis or birds. The block is adjacent to Bishop and Madrone, so feel free to take a look.
I was at Whistling Ridge yesterday and Chardonnay seems 2.25-2.75, except the new grafting where we’re dropping to 1 smallish cluster/shoot to allow the plants to continue to heal from last years grafting. Pinot Noir is slightly less, 2-2.25 tons per acre, with one block lower and one block probably a touch higher.
Thanks for the update, Marcus. I keep trying to pair back my cellar, but keep finding myself buying wine from you and Vincent F.
I appreciate that very much Paul. There’s too much good wine!
Haven’t you had some brutal heat in Willamette as of late. Not that it is that unusual but seems to have gotten quite hotter. Son lives near Sherwood and it has been very hot there for the last week.
It’s been hot. Not brutal. Supposed to get to around 96 today. That being said it’s noon and it’s 83. It’s summer. It gets warm.
It’s been a cool growing season so far. We normally start seeing 80 degree days in June, and sometimes as early as May. This year it was mid-July.
Last week we warmed up, and it’s been in the 90s for the last 8-10 days. That’s not unusual at all here in July or August. We had one night where the low was 61, and otherwise it’s been into the 50s. So mornings are quite cool, and the high temps have been later in the day.
The forecast for the next 10 days is all mid-80s for highs, and 50s for low temps at night. Pretty ideal ripening weather, and not abnormal but not as hot as August often is here.
Can you narrow the vintage comparisons yet?
I firmly believe in Jim’s golf analogy. The drive and long irons are critical…but you putt for dough and right now…you’re still sizing up your short irons.
That said Marcus. Thanks for the informative updates!
RT
It’s too early for real vintage comparisons. A typhoon in September would change everything, a la 2013. Hot east winds at harvest would push things in the other direction. Who knows what’s to come.
The hot weather lately is indeed normal and welcome. We need summer to grow the grapes. We just don’t need it to last too long.
Going to hold with my statement that if you’re on the green in 5 the best putt in the world is a bogey.
Just for clarity. The growing season in 2019 in the Willamette Valley was brutal. At this time last year people were losing acres of fruit to mildew. Acres wiped out. Not good year vs. bad year. No year at all.
No one talked about it, because if you avoided the mildew, your year stayed a mostly normal, cooler growing year. And if you didn’t avoid the worst of it, you didn’t feel like talking about it. But the adrenaline levels of everyone I know in the community were through the roof.
Topping it all off, it rained in September. We had a wet harvest for the first time in a while. But the prevailing feeling I saw was one of enjoying having to use our skill set and being pretty darn happy with the wines. I doubt many growers would rather alter the last 30 days of 2019 ahead of being able to change the short iron game.
This year will be what it will be, but once color change happens I am pretty sure I can put the ball in the cup. I’ll be ready for as many possible outcomes as I can think of, but we’re chipping at the flag, not the green.
I mentioned before that cluster physiology and crop load look a lot like 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and possibly 2019. The already determined crop set and shape of the clusters will be a massive impact on how the weather in the final 50-55 days affects the wines. The loosely spaced berries will help with disease resistance and tend towards concentration also aiding quality if we see inclement weather.
2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2013 are unlikely. All are big cluster vintages and, excepting 2001 and 2003, were further along by now. 2010 is also unlikely, the set was smaller, like this one, but the vintage was much later and we didn’t begin picking until October 20th.
It’s not outside the realm of possibility that this could look somewhat like 2003(2012 does shade that way), but it would take serious and relentless heat from now to near picking, and the East winds Vincent mentioned. But we do a lot of things differently in the vineyard now and it guards against that type of situation.
This year bloom was June 12-13th at Whistling Ridge. Picking will most likely begin in September a month earlier than 2010. 100 days from bloom at WR is Sept. 21st. Small set means hanging late is less likely.
2011, 2014, and 2015 are not happening. Color hasn’t changed yet and in 2014 and 2015 it was wrapping up. I picked on Sept. 5th in 2014 & 2015, and only because things cooled dramatically last week of August. 2011…see Jim’s post above.
Not to beat a dead horse(he says while 
)
Last 30 days of vintages are important why?
2006-big crop. Gross heat. Which 30 days to blame. Can’t really tell.
2007: big crop, hot growing season. Last 30 days rain. Rain. Rain. Rain. More rain. Still more rain. Maybe just mist today. Rain again. More rain. Ugh, putt is horrible shank 90 degrees from the cup…but wait, it’s rolling back down the green, it’s rolling towards the hole, it’s still rolling! It’s still rolling! It’s circling around the cup…it’s circling around the cup…IT’S IN THE HOLE!!! AAAAAAAAAHHHH!!! IT’S IN THE HOLE!!!
And the club that brought the dough was the (Bob) Wood. (RIP and thank you again for loving those sh**ty 07 WV Pinot Noirs.)
2008: very late start. very cool growing season, many fingernails chewed. Beautiful, beautiful September and October! Last 30 days are AMAZING!!! Harvest is so easy, and calm. Winemaker enthusiasm for the vintage is 100 points. Actual wines are probably pretty darn good…they are almost ready!
2009: late start, but hot, hot growing season. Last 30 days cooled a bit at the end, but not nearly enough, didn’t alter course much. Vintage was determined by mid growing season heat.
2010 & 2011: La Niña vintages, last 30 days…cold, mostly sunny, some rain in 2011, no real rain in 2010 until it forced everyone’s hand in late October.
2010-Great wines! Restrained and elegant. Caused more by late cool start? Or by late cool finish…no idea.
2011-Hard vintage, but October was the second warmest month of the year, so not the last 30 days fault. Last 30 days are the equivalent of sinking a 70 foot putt to single bogey. Yeah it could have been a LOT worse, but it’s not exactly a “championship” year. 100% due to having Junuary, Julyuary, and Septemberuary.
Some very good wines still, and some of RT and my favorites at the Berserker tasting. But it’s a winemakers vintage. Don’t love my own wines that vintage, but it’s more about moving into a new space and having the press fail mid-harvest.
2012-Jim’s favorite vintage, and I am very happy about my wines that vintage. Biggest challenge was not getting caught off guard on when fruit needed to be picked.
Super late spring- was IDENTICAL to 2010 and quite close to 2011. That similarity was completely erased by 80-88 degree days every single day from July 3rd to end of September. We had a switch from La Niña in 2012, and so while 2012 began very much like 2010 and 2011, it shifted weather and by mid-year we were in a warm pattern again(the La Nina switch was earlier). The mid-season was a ripeness machine and coupled with a small set absolutely eradicated any comparison to 2011, or even 2010.
2013-the best argument that putting matters. 6-7” of rain right before harvest. Mother Nature’s version of a tire screeching 180 degree e-brake turn. Definitely a challenge, but Charlie Fu just put the 2013 Heritage into a blind tasting with Liger-Belair and Fourrier and it showed all right.
2014 & 2015-Putting? What putting. OLast 30 days were the short irons…very early budbreak, followed by very early bloom.
You made your birdie by NOT dropping fruit, reducing canopy, and stripping leaves on both sides of the vines. …and by having enough barrels to handle your fruit load.
Bogey’s almost all came from airmailing the ball over the green, by not adjusting correctly during the irons play.
The last two weeks made everything a little easier, but hardly altered the vintages.
2016, 2017, & 2018-early season choices regarding canopy meant the ability to pick fruit at moderate brix with physiological ripeness. If you had to wait for flavors, sugars elevated and acids shrank. Very standard fall weather, and for those waiting for flavors, wines are bigger.
The outlier is 2017, where the savory aspect of the vintage is reflected in most of the wines that I have tasted. It’s, IMO, a reflection of skin thickness and tannin. Along with 2015, the hardest punchdowns since 2005. But the last 30 days were not terribly unusual or very different from 2016 or 2018. Caveat being that pick dates vary dramatically from winery to winery, so YMMV.
I have now seen 16 of our 18 Pinot Noir sites. Seeing one more tomorrow and the other will have to wait as they just sprayed today and it’s one of the two “far away” sites and I saw the other one today. The very experienced vineyard manager at that site said he thinks crop load is normal so I’m counting it in that category for now.
It’s a mixed bag for sure. There is stuff at 3 tons/acre and stuff at 1 or barely over that amount. Clusters range from normal to weird looking to vacant.
Stuff is all over the board in terms of where it is at. I have stuff that I am pretty sure we will pick on the next 45-50 days and stuff that could take up to 65-75 days. Hot weather in September could be brutal and shrivel and raisining are in play big time I’d that happens.
There are a multitude of reasons for concern but also for high levels of optimism. These are more typical PN cluster than we have seen in years. Flavor development could come swiftly within the context of brix development. Intensity is likely not to be an issue at a natural level barring atypical circumstances. It’s delicate out there but could be phenomenal.
“There are a multitude of reasons for concern but also for high levels of optimism. “
Yup…or as someone said, “it’s summer. It gets warm.”
Drama will come find us. No reason to go looking for it.
Marcus, my perceptions are clearly those of an armchair quarterback with none of the firsthand experience that you, Jim, Todd and Vincent have. But I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express…once. A couple of counter thoughts:
2006 - IIRC, this was the vintage where a lot of fruit underwent a sudden and massive brix surge after a brief rain and heat spike. Everyone scrambled to pick the grapes ASAP so as not to wind up with Port. A few extra days and winemakers would have been breaking their clubs!
2007 - Seemed like it was going to be the harvest from soaking wet hell…and it kind of was. Proper (and in many ways fortunate) vineyard management was crucial but so were the decisions in the last month. When to pick, which vineyards…even which rows/vines. Quite a challenge, combined with mildew and botrytis pressure. Sorting was important and in many cases critical. This was putting on the most challenging green that many OR winemakers had ever seen.
RT