Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

WINE TALK
21

This is what I keep wondering - whether the United States might dodge this one simply because the weather is starting to warm up.

It hit China in the dead of winter, and that’s a real whammy to be throwing at peoples’ respiratory tracts when they’re the most vulnerable.

By contrast, until the case reported in Nigeria the other day [involving a travelling Italian], there were few if any infections in the Southern Hemisphere, with the big exception of course being the politically-correct fools in Australia [how can you possibly allow a deadly pandemic to enter a friggin ISLAND unless you’re simply suicidal?].

Although, again, the summer weather in Australia right now ought to help those suicidal fools ride this one out.

Every politician, bureaucrat, lobbyist, economics professor, business professor, business guru, business consultant, environmentalist, author, scribe, script-writer, news-reader, media-producer, media-owner, minister, priest, rabbi, propaganda regurgitator, and every other assorted egghead or snake oil salesman in the greater Idiocracy Industrial Complex, who advocated for outsourcing our manufacturing base to Communist China, needs to be lined up against a wall and shot.

No exceptions.

After we liquidate all of them, we can turn our attention to becoming economically self-sufficient again.

22

Side note: Surely it would have cost him no more to wait to see if the airline(s) would waive the cancellation fees, as they have in many other affected areas.

23

There is no way to know if there are few reported cases due to there being few cases or if its an issue of inability to test. I personally believe its more a function of testing but have no data to support that position.

24

The HDH bids have been pretty strong thus far…Bordeaux and SQN caught my eye as being higher than I expected (bid)!

25

Oddly enough, Trump seems to have been right on this one for once, calling for restrictions on foreign travelers from Wuhan and China all the way back in January. That didn’t happen of course. Some of the people who have it now were brought in from the cruise ship, and apparently the workers who brought them over were exposed as well.

OTOH, the governor of Illinois said that the two people who had it there seem to be back in good health.

So far we know that it spreads easily but the best news from China, if that is in any way reliable, is that while people get sick, fatalities seem lower than they were for other diseases. The worst flu by far in the past century was the one in 1918, which killed millions of people. Subsequent outbreaks were far milder, including the Spanish flu and the Hong Kong flu. It was only a few years ago that people were worried about the swine flu, and more recently SARS and MERS. None caused the global economic problems that were predicted. So I wouldn’t be counting on wine prices dropping solely due to this virus.

But obviously nobody knows. It’s just the way I would guess.

26

My guess is some of the stock market reaction is due to a possible Bernie presidency.

27

This popped up when i opened the thread and when I scrolled up to see the author’s name, I felt no surprise.

28

Yes, Blue chip liquid gold…

29

Nothing too humorous, unfortunately- I had wrote tide going in versus going out.

As for one of the posts about the secondary effects of this virus, they nailed it. There will be derivative effects from this, and its not quantifiable at this point.

What we had was a market at excessive valuations, all time highs in a couple megacap names (most of the S&P was still well below AT high’s, meaning the index was being supported by a handful of stocks), extreme investor positioning, and historically high complacency. This violent move is a reversion back to the mean. Its like pulling on a rubber band- at some point its going to break, or snap back.

Like I mentioned earlier- buckle up folks…

30

My low bids at HDH auction were… too low. '05 Faiveley Beze… effectively went for $400/bottle with commission. Available at retail $350… not gonna win the '89 Lynch Bages…

31

After following HDH auction today and comparing my watch list and bids to previous auctions.

It’s a comical “No”.
Most hammer prices are higher on owc’s (Napa wines). $100-$300 higher actually.
I passed on all of my watch list wines.

32

I’m not taking your word for this. Later tonight after a couple or three glasses, I will post my insights into investing in this market. Your money, not mine. [cheers.gif]

33

Just curious. How far in advance of the auction can you post your absentee bids?

34

As soon as the bidding opens, usually several weeks before the live auction.
And the bidding was very strong today. Many things i bid on ultimately hammered above the high estimate. And HDH is good about realistic estimates.

35

A case of ‘08 Dom Perignon went for $190 per bottle, case of ‘03 Pontet Canet $160 per bottle, way above retail and auction averages…makes no sense to me. You can bid weeks in advance of the auction, but can modify (or even cancel) your bids until the lot comes up. So these likely weren’t bids made two weeks ago when the market and economy was booming…

36

I asked because I wonder if the absentee bids were submitted before the market went into its slump. How many people would have retracted their bids this week?

37

Many bids are submitted far ahead. But you can pull your bid until that lot is live. It’s easy. That said, I had to tell another guy about that feature.

I’d guess some of the high bids were pre-submitted and forgotten, but I’d hope most bidders knew what they were doing, and action seemed strong overall.

38

I had a friend who once picked up a case of 1991 Dominus at $100 per when a dipsh!t divorcing friend of his ‘needed’ to make the car payment on his BMW, so he sold an OWC to him at that distress price. The guy still ended up losing the car to the finance co, just a month later, of course. That friend of his always had stuff like that going on. That must have been his 2nd or 3rd marriage too, all to exotic dancers and that ilk as well.

At least I got to taste a couple bottles of the 91 Dominus, courtesy of that whole chain of events, and they were fantastic.

39

I don’t know about wine, but there was a sale on stocks so I bought some.

40

Please check back in one month from now and let us know how that worked out for you… And don’t fib :wink: