Wine Prices Reset Due to Covid-19 Recession

[CJ_Beazley]

I don’t buy very high-end wines, but from the offers I’ve been receiving over the past few weeks, I’m not seeing any major reduction in prices. Maybe that will change over the coming weeks and months? But what I have seen is a huge increase in the number of offers, so maybe that’s a leading indicator.

A certain oft discussed Dallas retailer…call it go’s, no wait po’s, if anything has gone up
I got some really solid deals back in the downturn of 07/08, but I also passed up some I wish I’d jumped on. I swore if I ever got another chance like that I’d go deep, we’ll see what happens I guess.

[Jeff_P]

I don’t buy very high-end wines, but from the offers I’ve been receiving over the past few weeks, I’m not seeing any major reduction in prices. Maybe that will change over the coming weeks and months? But what I have seen is a huge increase in the number of offers, so maybe that’s a leading indicator.

A certain oft discussed Dallas retailer…call it go’s, no wait po’s, if anything has gone up
I got some really solid deals back in the downturn of 07/08, but I also passed up some I wish I’d jumped on. I swore if I ever got another chance like that I’d go deep, we’ll see what happens I guess.

Some of the most expensive wine in town…

[Russell_Faulkner]

How many restaurants are buying?

[Fred_Davis]

(Sorry if someone has posted this topic)

Do you think the prices for wine will reset because of this Covid-19 recession (or possible depression)?

Excluding the cults and highly collectible wines like DRC and First Growths, wines like a standard entry level Napa Cabs have steadily jumped from ~$75 to now ~$125 over the years. Any chance it will reset?

One would think property valuations will go down, wages will decrease due to excess supply and suppliers giving up concessions to keep business.

The likelihood is quite high given the drop in demand that will take place due to millions of job losses and other oncoming financial strains. The stress hasn’t fully rippled through the economy yet so most wine prices are stable. Of course, governments are trying to prop up demand with money printing, but that likely won’t be enough to mask the underlying problem.

[Markus_S]

Right now it’s like Christmas for wine pricing if you know where to look. Grand Marques from good vintages for wholesale, nice burgs for low prices. I’ve bought 100 cases of wine in the last 2 weeks at much lower prices than I paid the last couple years.

Not sure where you are finding bargains as I am seeing none of it, except for $300 Burgundies going down $50 (whoo-hoo!).

Doubt prices will go down much with our government throwing trillions of dollars our way…Free money! Has to go somewhere and most likely liquid assets of some sort. Party on guys!

[David_K2]

Not seeing any meaningful sales from where I’m sitting either. Sure, the occasional deal, but nothing across-the-board or out of the ordinary. I agree that retail may be moderately strong for the time being with everyone at home and that they are trying to avoid cutting prices for a long as possible.

[Dav1d_Sawyer]

Lots of restaurants doing 50% off of their list to generate cash flow. Depending on the markup, there have been some great deals but mostly at the high end. Restaurants seem like the place where deals will be best in the immediate future. Will move up the supply chain as this environment is prolonged.

[Robert.A.Jr]

I love how one of my fave retailers - perhaps a wee bit out of touch, perhaps not - keeps sending out 2x daily emailers, and invariably one of those wines is $250+. I assume is buying those big guns.

[Eric_S_n_y_d_e_r]

My totally anecdotal take: I think retailers are trying to ride this out without major public discounting — while offering the steep discounts to private clients or through back channels. I get the sense many are hopeful that this can be weathered without a major disruption. But I think the dam will break at some point and there will be more public fire sales.

I have the exact same hunch. Seeing more back channel dumps, but publicly no one wants to devalue future pricing.

[Sc0tt_F_tzgerald]

I don’t buy very high-end wines, but from the offers I’ve been receiving over the past few weeks, I’m not seeing any major reduction in prices. Maybe that will change over the coming weeks and months? But what I have seen is a huge increase in the number of offers, so maybe that’s a leading indicator.

A certain oft discussed Dallas retailer…call it go’s, no wait po’s, if anything has gone up
I got some really solid deals back in the downturn of 07/08, but I also passed up some I wish I’d jumped on. I swore if I ever got another chance like that I’d go deep, we’ll see what happens I guess.

Yeah, I know there’s some secret pricing that Po**'s offers some customers, but the pricing I’ve seen is more like restaurant markups. They’d have to come down a ton to beat the prices I get from my other “sources”.

[James_Kennedy]

Anyone seen deals on Salon 08 yet?

[Yao_C]

Anyone seen deals on Salon 08 yet?

[m_ristev]

definitely seen some ‘unicorn’ wines available at more reasonable prices than before. i am sure with a large portion of restaurants failing to reopen there will be some serious consequences in the future. i don’t believe people will be guarding any particular labels like has definitely become the norm in recent years.

[John_Glas]

People are buying alcohol like it’s Christmas every day. Maybe after this is all over there will be a slump, but for now, heck no.

Don’t you think a lot of the massive increases are cheaper or products less than $20.00. I am even looking for that great deal and hesitate to spend more than $50 for a bottle. Part of that is this time a year golf membership is on the credit card.

[John_Glas]

I don’t buy very high-end wines, but from the offers I’ve been receiving over the past few weeks, I’m not seeing any major reduction in prices. Maybe that will change over the coming weeks and months? But what I have seen is a huge increase in the number of offers, so maybe that’s a leading indicator.

Certainly no reduction in daily offers! Agree not seeing any wonderful deals right now.

[Nick_Gangas]

my take. Lower end wine will take a big hit. Especially with the previously discussed increased supply. but with the new free money the high end will stay solid. Plus this recession is hitting the poor hard.

[alan_weinberg]

I don’t buy very high-end wines, but from the offers I’ve been receiving over the past few weeks, I’m not seeing any major reduction in prices. Maybe that will change over the coming weeks and months? But what I have seen is a huge increase in the number of offers, so maybe that’s a leading indicator.

Certainly no reduction in daily offers! Agree not seeing any wonderful deals right now.

+1. Looks like some retailers are in a parallel universe unaffected by current events.

[jason_stein]

I love how one of my fave retailers - perhaps a wee bit out of touch, perhaps not - keeps sending out 2x daily emailers, and invariably one of those wines is $250+. I assume is buying those big guns.

I think it is a matter of retailers needing to keep the wine moving – bottles don’t stop coming in the door just because some regulars stop buying them! Anecdotally I have been receiving offers for wines I have not previously been given access to. Especially with expensive but highly-allocated wines, there are undoubtedly plenty of people waiting in line for a chance to bite, despite high prices.

[MChang]

I don’t buy very high-end wines, but from the offers I’ve been receiving over the past few weeks, I’m not seeing any major reduction in prices. Maybe that will change over the coming weeks and months? But what I have seen is a huge increase in the number of offers, so maybe that’s a leading indicator.

My totally anecdotal take: I think retailers are trying to ride this out without major public discounting — while offering the steep discounts to private clients or through back channels. I get the sense many are hopeful that this can be weathered without a major disruption. But I think the dam will break at some point and there will be more public fire sales.

That might not be incorrect…

[Arv_R]

And it will last. As John pointed out, during the financial crisis people traded down in a big way. Higher end wines just weren’t selling unless they were selling at the discounts Michael is jumping on. But after the turnaround, things didn’t jump right back to where they were. People had learned that a lot of pricing is fluff and once they found wines that they liked at prices that were far less than they’d been paying, they weren’t in any hurry to start paying inflated prices again.

Add to that the fact that a lot of restaurants are simply going to close permanently, so there will be inventory available to clearance houses as well as fewer customers for the distributors.

Truth 2 Power !