Wine pricing bubble? Thoughts?

[AD_Northup]

There must be a back-story here? Did John stir something up in another thread? His statement is merely one of logical conjecture, not one of celebrating or hoping-for desperate times of this nature — at least, not how I read it. If a winery ever offers a sale, should the customer not buy?

Nope, just sounds like some ITB people in this thread being resentful about people asking why their fermented grape juice can continue to appreciate in price indefinitely. Apparently it’s galling to even question such a thing.

Sounds like people who have been forced out of their homes and are watching their entire life’s work going up in flames, or worrying that they might be next, are a little peeved to see people circling their still-warm carcasses to see if there is anything to pick over.

[Chris_Crutchfield]

Sounds like people who have been forced out of their homes and are watching their entire life’s work going up in flames, or worrying that they might be next, are a little peeved to see people circling their still-warm carcasses to see if there is anything to pick over.

I understand that the timing of OP’s question was not great, and of course all my sympathies go to those affected by the fires right now.

But it’s a valid question to ask whether wine prices can continue to appreciate given all of the headwinds this year. If you find insult in even the premise of the question, or if you feel that this thread is comprised of a bunch of vultures asking “WHUR MUH DEALS AT”, then you really shouldn’t be posting here. Let alone insulting people for even bringing up the topic. Take a seat, turn off the computer, and focus on something else because you are not adding any value to the discussion.

[Neal.Mollen]

Sounds like people who have been forced out of their homes and are watching their entire life’s work going up in flames, or worrying that they might be next, are a little peeved to see people circling their still-warm carcasses to see if there is anything to pick over.

I understand that the timing of OP’s question was not great, and of course all my sympathies go to those affected by the fires right now.

But it’s a valid question to ask whether wine prices can continue to appreciate given all of the headwinds this year. If you find insult in even the premise of the question, or if you feel that this thread is comprised of a bunch of vultures asking “WHUR MUH DEALS AT”, then you really shouldn’t be posting here. Let alone insulting people for even bringing up the topic. Take a seat, turn off the computer, and focus on something else because you are not adding any value to the discussion.

The question is a reasonable one. I took great offense to almost every word of your prior galling post, and I am not a victim of the fires or the economy.

[David_Bu3ker]

You clearly don’t know Wes too well. That’s how he talks. If you can’t handle that then you might want to avoid the Internet.

With all due respect, please don’t presume to tell me what to avoid, what i can and can’t handle. I don’t avoid going to the park because there are dogs, and I sure as hell don’t avoid bullys… All I did was ask a question. Politely I might add!

John,

It is now clear that you were just trolling for confirmation in order to make a killing at the expense of wineries or importers in distress. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Mike_C1]

High-end Burgundy - soar higher
Other Burgundy - stable
Other France - stable/down
Barolo - higher
High-end Italy - stable
Other Italy - stable/down
Spain - stable
Germany - stable
US-Ca - stable/down

This makes sense to me though I’m a bit more bullish on Germany, especially high-end Germany.

[Chris_Crutchfield]

The question is a reasonable one. I took great offense to almost every word of your prior galling post, and I am not a victim of the fires or the economy.

I’m not the one in this thread dropping F bombs at potential customers

[Wes_Barton]

Covid has majorly disrupted distribution channels. Fires slashed west coast production this year, which counters any surplus. There’s not going to be a bubble popping. There is and will be a lot of scrambling to adapt to all the disruption. If you see any great deals, it’s at someone’s expense. Not a good thing to be hoping for. Support the wineries you care about. If you think you’re spending too much money on wine, you probably are. Put down the magazines and the drool cup, do some leg work and find some producers who don’t bother with the hype machine, and just make honestly great wines.

I can tell you are upset, and I am sorry that you feel the need to be so rude and hurl insults. By way of example…I don’t think a 15% bubble in first grow bordeaux is really “at someones expense”, or a 15% drop in Krug is “at someones expense”. When they jack prices up by 15%, I also don’t view it as them doing it at “my expense”. I am sorry you feel a need to be hostile.

I’d describe the now edited post above mine as upset. Nice condescension followed by massive backpedalling, though. Is a 15% market correction in Krug really what you were talking about? Clos du Mesnil is 5+ times what it was when I first had it, back when 1990 was the current release. Looks like the current release now is '04. So, at least a 500% increase in 15 years, but a 15% drop would be the bubble popping? Your response here sounds dishonest, to put in nicely.

[Wes_Barton]

If you see any great deals, it’s at someone’s expense. Not a good thing to be hoping for.

If a winery or retailer offers a deal, presumably they think they’re better off if customers buy those wines than if they don’t, right? I don’t think you’re a bad person if you buy the discounted wines offered in that situation.

[I see Brian posted a similar thought while I was typing.]

As I said, presumably that means they’re distressed, which is not a good thing to be hoping for. Taking advantage of a deal is fine. But, as I noted (and Hardy demonstrated) many west coast producers are hurting, they’re under existential threat. So, a better focus would be looking to support producers you’d like to see continue to exist.

[Chris_Seiber]

Thank you for explaining, Wes.

[Dennis_Borczon]

Whoa, I think we should all just take a step back. I think it is quite reasonable to suppose that asking about Ca wine deals when we are in the throes of a major life catastrophe is more than a little insensitive. There is no need to go there. Many will be forced to make difficult decisions in order to keep their businesses, and lives in some sort of order. We all get that. But here is no need to be gleeful about it or congratulate oneself on how canny a buyer you are because of a natural disaster.

To be more positive about it, just bid on several auction deal at Acker that will benefit restaurant workers in NYC impacted by the pandemic. Did I get a deal on the couple of lots I bought? Maybe. But it felt good to do something related to wine that can positive (please edit out your comments about Acker, Rudy, why you don’t do business with them, etc…I know I know. But lets give them some credit when there IS a positive event associated with the biz)

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a similar theme to a west coast wine sale that has some benefit from those burned out in the fire? We could get some nice wines, they could get a bit of cash flow. Nobody has to feel like a vulture picking over a carcass.

On the other hand, getting the benefit of a bursting bubble with some hideously priced Burgundy might feel awful nice. I don’t know about you, but I am getting an awful lot of offers for high end Roumier, DRC, Rousseau, etc from retailers. Seems the supply is pretty good if you want to pay top dollar. 2017 also seems to be hitting my mailbox every day. If they are so rare and in demand, where are all those clique “Asian buyers” who should be scooping those wines up? Fashions come and go, it is not impossible for Burgundy to fall out of fashion again. I know this is a contrarian view, but someone had to decide that all those rare tulip bulbs were just flowers, not nirvana. It’s still just wine.

[Merrill_Lindquist]

I couldn’t read all the back and forth here. I may well lose my home tonight, and my vineyard from which I produce wines, and my pet, and someone is insensitive enough to ask if he might enjoy the spoils of my heartache? Go away.

[David_Bu3ker]

I couldn’t read all the back and forth here. I may well lose my home tonight, and my vineyard from which I produce wines, and my pet, and someone is insensitive enough to ask if he might enjoy the spoils of my heartache? Go away.

Wishing you all the luck in the world tonight Merrill.

[Eric_Lundblad]

I couldn’t read all the back and forth here. I may well lose my home tonight, and my vineyard from which I produce wines, and my pet, and someone is insensitive enough to ask if he might enjoy the spoils of my heartache? Go away.

Wishing you all the luck in the world tonight Merrill.

Same here Merrill

[lleichtman]

I couldn’t read all the back and forth here. I may well lose my home tonight, and my vineyard from which I produce wines, and my pet, and someone is insensitive enough to ask if he might enjoy the spoils of my heartache? Go away.

Wishing you all the luck in the world tonight Merrill.

This should be universal for all of us.

[John_Telford]

High-end Burgundy - soar higher
Other Burgundy - stable
Other France - stable/down
Barolo - higher
High-end Italy - stable
Other Italy - stable/down
Spain - stable
Germany - stable
US-Ca - stable/down

This makes sense to me though I’m a bit more bullish on Germany, especially high-end Germany.


Thoughts on Champagne?

[J_Rock]

I don’t think a pricing bubble necessarily has to do with acute hardships/tragedies, but the marketplace being too far out of equilibrium for too long and correcting. I’m pretty surprised several people seem to have read into the original post that the original poster was trying to see where he could take advantage or desperate or hurting suppliers (but it’s possible that I’m the one misreading the post).

Anyway, I think this is an interesting question. While the price of a lot of wine has seems to have appreciated much more than inflation over the same period of time and as wage growth has been moving relatively downward and on less than stellar trend since the start of this millennium, I wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking there was a bubble. However, I think the people buying the wine that is appreciating the most and is the most expensive are generally a very fortunate/well-off tiny minority of the population, and a minority that has seen much better wage growth than the general population. As long as the rich continue the trend and keep getting richer (or are already so rich that it doesn’t matter), I wouldn’t expect to see a wine bubble burst. I guess, we shall see.

[John_Telford]

I couldn’t read all the back and forth here. I may well lose my home tonight, and my vineyard from which I produce wines, and my pet, and someone is insensitive enough to ask if he might enjoy the spoils of my heartache? Go away.

My sympathy no words are adequate! My post was not meant to be insensitive.

[John_Telford]

Covid has majorly disrupted distribution channels. Fires slashed west coast production this year, which counters any surplus. There’s not going to be a bubble popping. There is and will be a lot of scrambling to adapt to all the disruption. If you see any great deals, it’s at someone’s expense. Not a good thing to be hoping for. Support the wineries you care about. If you think you’re spending too much money on wine, you probably are. Put down the magazines and the drool cup, do some leg work and find some producers who don’t bother with the hype machine, and just make honestly great wines.

I can tell you are upset, and I am sorry that you feel the need to be so rude and hurl insults. By way of example…I don’t think a 15% bubble in first grow bordeaux is really “at someones expense”, or a 15% drop in Krug is “at someones expense”. When they jack prices up by 15%, I also don’t view it as them doing it at “my expense”. I am sorry you feel a need to be hostile.

I’d describe the now edited post above mine as upset. Nice condescension followed by massive backpedalling, though. Is a 15% market correction in Krug really what you were talking about? Clos du Mesnil is 5+ times what it was when I first had it, back when 1990 was the current release. Looks like the current release now is '04. So, at least a 500% increase in 15 years, but a 15% drop would be the bubble popping? Your response here sounds dishonest, to put in nicely.

To be clear my hostile friend…I buy very little california wine. My post was very clear. You have interpreted it poorly. I am embarrassed for you.

[John_Telford]

I don’t think a pricing bubble necessarily has to do with acute hardships/tragedies, but the marketplace being too far out of equilibrium for too long and correcting. I’m pretty surprised several people seem to have read into the original post that the original poster was trying to see where he could take advantage or desperate or hurting suppliers (but it’s possible that I’m the one misreading the post).

Anyway, I think this is an interesting question. While the price of a lot of wine has seems to have appreciated much more than inflation over the same period of time and as wage growth has been moving relatively downward and on less than stellar trend since the start of this millennium, I wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking there was a bubble. However, I think the people buying the wine that is appreciating the most and is the most expensive are generally a very fortunate/well-off tiny minority of the population, and a minority that has seen much better wage growth than the general population. As long as the rich continue the trend and keep getting richer (or are already so rich that it doesn’t matter), I wouldn’t expect to see a wine bubble burst. I guess, we shall see.

Thank you. This was my question and intent!

[Al_Osterheld]

Have followed the thread, I think it was the “fires may force sale of libraries for cash flow” remark that upset some people. I don’t think that was the focus of your own interest, but it’s also not surprising that people still dealing with the fires were upset by the remark.

-Al