Thanks Faryan, much appreciated, glad you are happy with the wine!!
Oh, I thought those threads were just summarizing Bob’s top picks from each year, minus some of the more austere left bank wines. ![[oops.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/1/1f129ddad071ffe5db6c99817c3cab666035a70a.gif "oops"){kind=small}
Alex. I have been searching for support for your thesis that the Chinese will soon become large players in Bordeaux futures.
You can see here on this video that the proof you allege is actually just Chinese sleight of hand.
YouTube" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Here is the attribution:
http://www.topwinechina.com/visitors/visitorsframe.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Bordeaux sold 661 million bottles of wine in 2009 for revenues of 3.37 billion euros (£3 billion) for wines ranging from low-price supermarket wines to top chateaux. Of those sales, the French themselves bought 68 per cent, mainly via large supermarkets. Of the exports, 56 per cent remained in the European Union. China bought 13.7 million litres for 74 million euros (£67 million), overtaking the United States, which took 11.6 million litres for 139 million euros. Japan came third, with the same volume as the United States. Hong Kong is counted as a separate market, where 4.2 million litres were sold for 109 million euros.
Having seen` the real info, this reminds me of the comment that some people use statistics like drunks use lamp posts – for support rather than illumination.
So, now for a little illumination… China purchased 2.1 million liters more wine, during truly terrible economic times for the US, with some so-so vintages in the pipeline, for slightly more than half of what the US spent (139M Euros US vs 74M Euros China). As 56% remained in the EU, this probably accounts for Francois’ statement about the Belgians also buying more than the US. There is Hong Kong also, but I’m not sure how much of what is counted as exports to HK actually stays in HK.
More detailed story here: http://www.sinodaily.com/afp/100316030546.5tgrvxd7.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
And it basically says what we already know… China is buying alot of low end Bordeaux, meanwhile exports to US, UK, and Belgium have fallen tremendously during 2009.
Though “Hong Kong is counted as a separate market”, it is, in fact, part of China. The other article states “that most of the expensive wines being shipped into China”. Reading both linked articles, it readily appears then that China is, indeed, Bdx’s white knight of sorts.
Bob,
Sorry, it’s easy to mix up who said what on long threads! It was indeed Ed and not you who spoke of “zero interest” in the 2009 primeurs.
Trivia : it is very rare to find Bordelaise sauce… in Bordeaux !
Scott Lorin,
The statistics about China overtaking US were confirmed by the president of the CIVB and are undoubtedly based on customs figures. We are talking here about volume and not value. As François Mauss correctly points out, Belgium also imports more Bordeaux than the US.
What I know about China could be written on the head of a pin. All I know is that the short-term indicators weigh heavily on China’s continued rise.
As for medium or long-term developments, I wouldn’t dream of venturing to say!
Best regards,
Alex R.
I guess my point is that I’m more comfortable with the veracity of the information about what is being shipped out of France to China and HK, than I am with the statements about where the wine goes after HK, probably because 1) there is another step of indirection; and 2) I personally don’t know enough to understand the underlying details about why the markets are tracked/assessed separately.
Alex
That is not what I said at all.
One has to be careful where and when to buy and at what price because I think many of these wines could be bought at lower prices and at lower risk in several years.
I am interested in futures, they just make little sense in today’s economy due to the risk of default on what is essentially an unsecured loan. So, I buy far, far less EP than in years past and only from what I consider less risky sources.
If 2009 pricing is closer to 2008 EP than 2005 EP, I might be inclined to lend some money to Bdx. If priced closer to 2005 EP, I wait.
FWIW, China is said to import more wine on a volume basis than America at this point. That might not mean much today, but even that would have been considered impossible 5 years ago. If that trend continues, and there is no reason it won’t, it’s only a matter of time before China and other emerging markets begin taking sizable allocations of the top Bordeaux wines. That will change how Bordeaux is sold and allocated all over the world. Will that happen in 2009? I hope not as that means higher prices for American consumers.
Belgium imports more Bordeaux on a per capita basis than America. I do not think they import more Bordeaux in volume or value. They remain potentially the top purchasers of Right Bank wines, especially from Pomerol.
Jeff,
Maybe they will start to buy up the '05, '06, and '07 inventories that are piling up…
I still don’t see them as a player in E.P. Hong Kong has its players through Britain, but Mainland China, interest free loans are so anti communisit/ psuedo capitalist.
Jeff, although you state " I hope not as that means higher prices for American consumers", why is it that every post you make about Bordeaux is slanted toward the exclusivity and possible unavailablity of Bordeaux. Your pro-Bordeaux drumbeat is a constant rally cry for what you say you hope doesn’t happen. Long time buyers here and on the other site challange the Bordeaux pricing model. You have continually supported it with your inaccurate Market is made by buyers analysis. Your words “you hope prices don’t rise” don’t honestly ring true. Can’t you see the “possible” confliciton we raise? ![[shrug.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/4/48636ebda2a440a43ad8d24c83be20ac20c53420.gif "shrug"){kind=small}
I am not bashing you, merely inquiring minds would like to know.
I guess from an American consumer viewpoint, it does not matter who buys the stuff. It could be Klingons from Uranus 
or any other fill in the blank market. The American consumer will buy if the price is right (that is a wide range I am sure), if not - good for Bordeaux that they have a new market to sell off all their wines. If they charge $1K/bottle in US dollars for the stuff and they can get, so be it. We have other wines to drink (hey even Napa is looking like a QPR now 
) so no biggie. The real question is staying power, how long will these new markets continue to absorb and what is their puke-point on pricing. The problem is if I am walking on a wire 10 feet above the ground, I can fall and most likely survive (if I don’t land on my head). Bordeaux has raised the wire to 50 feet with the rapid price increases (in the face of a deflationary market), so if they fall, that will leave a mark and I doubt they walk away.
Todd… Anything is possible. They might have been buying a lot of those wines already. There is not much 07 in America. Not many importers or merchants bought those wines. America does have a lot of 05 Bordeaux. But that does not mean the rest of the world is sitting on those wines. I have no idea if there is massive amounts of 05 or 06 available in other countries or not. But what is taking place in America is not always the same as what takes place in other countries.
There is an over supply of some Bordeaux wine in America. But I’m not sure how much remains of the top 30/40 wines that are in demand. Just because 05 Lascombes or other wines are available, does not mean everything is around in quantity discounts.
Please, Ed, this is exactly what you said earlier in this thread. I didn’t make anything up!
“Frankly, buying futures makes zero sense in today’s deflationary world. The wines will be cheaper in a few years especially afte3r the Euro implodes”.
Jeff,
As for Belgium, no, we are not talking about per capita consumption. We are talking about total consumption.
The Kingdom of Belgium imports just over twice the volume of Bordeaux as the United States, whereas it has 1/30th of the population…
Nouvelle-Aquitaine : actualités et infos en direct - France 3 Nouvelle-Aquitaine" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Best regards,
Alex R.
So, it is very obvious they have a drinking problem
I do not see China being a major buyer of 09 either. But that won’t be for a lack of effort on the part of Negociants or owners who constantly promote in those markets.
Keep in mind, it was not that long ago when European countries said America would not be an important market for Bordeaux.
As to your other point, you are welcome to think what you like. But you are wrong. Higher prices is bad for all of us. I continue being shut out of wines I want to own because they cost more than I am willing to spend. That is life. I drink what I have and find other wines to buy. News is news. Nothing I say or do will change the news.
Fair enough, thanks for your response Jeff. I am just old school and was raised to believe that actions speak louder than words. We all anticipate the news in the next weeks.
Best; Jack
Il est démontré, disait-il, que les choses ne peuvent être autrement; car tout étant fait pour une fin, tout est nécessairement pour la meilleure fin.
You absolutely misquoted me, I never used the words zero interest in 2009 premieurs. Maybe, English is not your native language and you simply misunderstand. I don’t know. But it should not require much interpretation to distinquish between not making much sense (general statement about all vintages of futures) based upon the economy and having zero interest (specific statement about 2009 which I never said). Purchasing wine is an emotional decision as much as a logical one based upon sense. I have also said that I might buy 2009 if prices are right and that one needs to be careful to select a good retailer. The days of buying broadly w/o concern for delivery risks are over for me but that does not mean I won’t buy any futures…it means they will be much more limited.
If I had zero interest, why would I participate on these threads?
May I ask how you believe you know so much about the Bdx trade?
Are you in the business or somehow affliated with a Negoc?