How do you know a wine will be good years in the future?

[jmckinley]

I have the good fortune of being away from my cellar for a couple of years while working overseas so it is trial and error and a fun experiment. I get to pop a few bottles 1-2 times a year and see how they are aging.

[Barry_Paul_Price]

What have you observed so far, jm?

[Ian_Sutton]

@Michael Martin

@Ian Sutton

Not a bad ‘insight’ piece, so I’ll cut her some slack for the following comment:

A wine that isn’t complex to begin with won’t become complex with age

Hunter Semillon is a wonderful example where the ageworthy examples are remarkably uncomplex on release, especially compared to some riper / more worked examples that are noticeably more complex on release, but don’t age as well. Once these ‘simple’ semillons reach maturity, they can acquire wonderful complexity.

There are plenty more scenarios where that advice is just plain wrong.

Like I said though, I think it’s a reasonable piece, so I’d encourage the interested to read the article and not focus on a single disputed comment.

[EDIT: Oops, I missed this comment in a boxed section, which as written, the bolded section is nonsense

If you live in a place where your home exceeds 70 °F (27 °C), using a wine fridge or underground storage is highly recommended. > It’s been shown that fluctuating temperatures will accelerate aging at a rate of 4 times faster than the consistent climate of a cellar. >

How much fluctuation? By how many degrees F/C? How measured? Exactly 4 times faster for any amount of fluctuation? It suggests the wine will reach the same point 4 times as fast. This bit needed a bit more proof-reading / editing as the broad comment is reasonable, but the ‘science’ either very badly worded, or conceivably flawed / made-up … and no source was quoted ]

She’s a Master Somm, a NYT best selling author and was in “Somm, into the bottle” movie. So she has some street cred already.

Which cheekily I’d suggest gives less excuse for those comments.

[jmckinley]

Complete work in progress but, after a few years, I have started to find drinking windows for wines that suit me and my tastes. (100% subjective and where my tastes are at the moment) While my cellar is not large (~120btls and not too widely varied) I have found the following and clearly my tastes lean towards youthful -

CA cabs/syrahs: 8-12+ yrs
CA Zins: 4-6 yrs
Petite sirah: 7-8 yrs
CA Pinots: 5-7yrs (currently working on keeping a few a little longer!!)
Big CA chard: oldest I have had at 7yrs, waiting to try older
Big Aussie Shiraz: 10-15yrs
Hunter Valley Shiraz: 4-5yrs
Hunter Valley Semillon: either 1-2yrs or 8-10yrs
Riojas - 8-10 yrs
Brunellos/Barolo - works in progress
The few aged Bordeaux I have had - 15-25yrs still with youthful edges

Long way to go and a lot more to try!!

[Mattstolz]

I’m pretty new at this so I’d be happy to be corrected if this is wrong but I can tell you what I’ve been doing so far. It has seemed to me like as I research that expert’s tasting notes tend to be helpful for this. there’s a few key words that seem to be important. Wines that are described as well structured or tight tend to age well. Especially when the tannins are well balanced with fruit and theres a little bit of acidity.

also, the type of grape makes a big difference. Cabs tend to age better than tempernillios, for example. also, knowing that a certain producer has a history of wines that age well and its a vintage that was a good one helps!

[Ian_Sutton]

Hi Matt
This does create a little debate, as there are exceptions of wines that aren’t obviously tightly structured that age well, plus some that are that never really achieve good balance, so might even be best drunk in youth. IMO these are the exceptions, so as you say: considering tannins, acidity & depth/style of fruit should serve you well.

How to translate that into a drinking window? The best way is to cheat, by looking back on how other vintages of that have matured and use that as a starting point to increase/reduce based on what you’re tasting. Trying to do this without referring back to useful benchmarks (ideally same wine, made in similar style) is very difficult. Indeed best done by thinking of broad brackets e.g. early drinking (say 1-3 years), Medium term (8-12 years), Long cellaring (20-30 years) etc. so rather than guessing at years, you’re really just guessing at the category. I know of one pro critic who does this - even with knowledge of back vintages of the wine.

Grape does make a difference, but so does where it’s grown and how it was treated in the winery. e.g. Tempranillo from Rioja, given extended oak ageing before bottling, has shown to last/improve over many decades. Other Tempranillo based wines will be made in a lighter style for early drinking. Again, the trick is to cheat and see how previous vintages or at least similar wines age, to gauge how long to cellar.

Good vintages certainly do tend to help ageing, and likewise really poor ones tend to count against it. However a couple of caveats:

• Beware vintage assessments, often covering vast swathes of land / huge numbers of different wineries, using different grapes etc. They can be a crass over-generalisation more often than not.
• Recent years have seen many warm vintages over-rated (IMO), e.g. 1997/2000 in Barolo, but there are examples in plenty of other regions. Again, beware of overgeneralising, as there are plenty of good and likely long-lasting wines from both vintages - but not as much as some critics lauded at the time of their release. Here’s a thread that shows how very ripe (or overripe) fruit can change the flavour profile, affecting longevity for many. TN: 2003 Domaine Pierre Usseglio & Fils Châteauneuf-du-Pape Cuvée de mon Aïeul - WINE TALK - WineBerserkers

regards
Ian

[Barry_Paul_Price]

@Ian Sutton

Hi Matt
This does create a little debate, as there are exceptions of wines that aren’t obviously tightly structured that age well, plus some that are that never really achieve good balance, so might even be best drunk in youth. IMO these are the exceptions, so as you say: considering tannins, acidity & depth/style of fruit should serve you well.

How to translate that into a drinking window? The best way is to cheat, by looking back on how other vintages of that have matured and use that as a starting point to increase/reduce based on what you’re tasting. Trying to do this without referring back to useful benchmarks (ideally same wine, made in similar style) is very difficult. Indeed best done by thinking of broad brackets e.g. early drinking (say 1-3 years), Medium term (8-12 years), Long cellaring (20-30 years) etc. so rather than guessing at years, you’re really just guessing at the category. I know of one pro critic who does this - even with knowledge of back vintages of the wine.

Grape does make a difference, but so does where it’s grown and how it was treated in the winery. e.g. Tempranillo from Rioja, given extended oak ageing before bottling, has shown to last/improve over many decades. Other Tempranillo based wines will be made in a lighter style for early drinking. Again, the trick is to cheat and see how previous vintages or at least similar wines age, to gauge how long to cellar.

Good vintages certainly do tend to help ageing, and likewise really poor ones tend to count against it. However a couple of caveats:

• Beware vintage assessments, often covering vast swathes of land / huge numbers of different wineries, using different grapes etc. They can be a crass over-generalisation more often than not.
• Recent years have seen many warm vintages over-rated (IMO), e.g. 1997/2000 in Barolo, but there are examples in plenty of other regions. Again, beware of overgeneralising, as there are plenty of good and likely long-lasting wines from both vintages - but not as much as some critics lauded at the time of their release. Here’s a thread that shows how very ripe (or overripe) fruit can change the flavour profile, affecting longevity for many. TN: 2003 Domaine Pierre Usseglio & Fils Châteauneuf-du-Pape Cuvée de mon Aïeul - WINE TALK - WineBerserkers

regards
Ian

Great post Ian! Very informative! There are lots of interesting things in there to consider. One thing I continue to be fascinated by is how much influence oak has on wine, and how under-discussed oak is as a topic. Not just ‘too m uch’ or ‘too little’… but American v French v Hungarian, toast level, cooperage, size of barrel (wine to wood ratio), length in oak, new vs neutral… and custom toasted barrels made to suit the profiles of certain winemakers. I’d love to understand how much of what I am tasting comes from decisions about the wood, not the grapes.

[Ian_Sutton]

Fair comment Barry. Many of us have our ‘oak nazi’ moments, where we whine about heavy handed use of oak.

However yes oak is typically a key element in wines destined for ageing and not just for ‘flavouring’.

I wonder whether it might be good to post what you wrote above (from ‘One thing…’ onwards) as a new thread on the main forum? Also useful to ask what role oak has in ensuring longevity/stability, and what is done to the oak between usage & how much this varies (and why). Use of oak for fermentation, as against the usual Stainless Steel might also be of interest.

I think it could be quite a useful thread if we move on from the normal ‘I hate too much American oak’ etc. feelings.

regards
Ian

[Barry_Paul_Price]

@Ian Sutton

Fair comment Barry. Many of us have our ‘oak nazi’ moments, where we whine about heavy handed use of oak.

However yes oak is typically a key element in wines destined for ageing and not just for ‘flavouring’.

I wonder whether it might be good to post what you wrote above (from ‘One thing…’ onwards) as a new thread on the main forum? Also useful to ask what role oak has in ensuring longevity/stability, and what is done to the oak between usage & how much this varies (and why). Use of oak for fermentation, as against the usual Stainless Steel might also be of interest.

I think it could be quite a useful thread if we move on from the normal ‘I hate too much American oak’ etc. feelings.

regards
Ian

To be honest, I am afraid it would devolve into the same old, simplistic argument you mention above. I feel like we get more considered responses in this forum. That said, we don’t have nearly the same foot traffic in here.

[Ian_Sutton]

Fair comment!

[Mike_Francisco]

I would also add if you are starting a cellar not to go overboard early on, for two reasons;

1 You want a flow to your cellar, by that I mean wines at differing points along the aging timeline.

2 Your tastes will change over time and what you like now may not be what you are into then, we all have a few orphans in our cellars.

[Francois_Sauve]

@Mike Francisco

Your tastes will change over time and what you like now may not be what you are into then, we all have a few orphans in our cellars.

So true! Realizing this was happening to me 10-15 years ago, I started purchasing wines that I did not particularly like with the expectation that I would ultimately gravitate towards them. Perhaps this is an advice to be taken with a grain of salt but I guess the underlying message would be “dare to diversify”.

Cheers,

[Mark_Y]

Why not simply just taste?

Taste a 8/15/25 year old leoville lascases and u can figure out if u like it? Repeat for any wine u are thinking of stocking up on?

[Lex_S]

@Todd F r e n c h

Jan, it’s a tough question to answer, frankly, as nobody KNOWS it for certain. It comes from experience, tasting wines that are young and at other times in your life tasting those same producers with some age, realizing what the wine is like later on compared to early on, and seeing what your preference is. For example, you might enjoy a Ridge Monte Bello 5 years after release, then you try one that’s 25 years old and you LOVE it, as it’s a different wine - that’s the type of wine you ‘know’ ages well, based solely on your own experience and opinion, and that’s all that matters in the end.

Also, you can tell, more simply, by a wine that seems really structured or ridiculously oaky - likely the winemaker is intending that wine to age. Many wines now - especially in CA - are made to drink soon, as that’s where the majority of the market is. If you drink a Chardonnay that tastes super oaky and seems like it has no fruit, it’s made to age. If you drink a Cab that is velvety, super bold fruit, and drinks very well, it’s not made to age.

Thanks Todd, this has always been an area of confusion for me too, so I appreciate your insight. I used to think that only certain varietals could age well, like a Cabernet or Pinot, but that a Merlot could not. Now I understand it’s not the varietal so much as it is how the winemaker grows, ferments and ages it. It’s still a learning process for me!

[Steve_Slatcher]

@Michael Martin

She’s a Master Somm, a NYT best selling author and was in “Somm, into the bottle” movie. So she has some street cred already.

The Somm exams in order of difficulty are: Introductory, Certified, Advanced and Master. And Madeline Puckette claims on her website to be a CERTIFIED Sommelier. She may have street cred in some circles, but has a way to go in terms of formal wine education.

[Mike_Francisco]

@Lex S

@Todd F r e n c h

Jan, it’s a tough question to answer, frankly, as nobody KNOWS it for certain. It comes from experience, tasting wines that are young and at other times in your life tasting those same producers with some age, realizing what the wine is like later on compared to early on, and seeing what your preference is. For example, you might enjoy a Ridge Monte Bello 5 years after release, then you try one that’s 25 years old and you LOVE it, as it’s a different wine - that’s the type of wine you ‘know’ ages well, based solely on your own experience and opinion, and that’s all that matters in the end.

Also, you can tell, more simply, by a wine that seems really structured or ridiculously oaky - likely the winemaker is intending that wine to age. Many wines now - especially in CA - are made to drink soon, as that’s where the majority of the market is. If you drink a Chardonnay that tastes super oaky and seems like it has no fruit, it’s made to age. If you drink a Cab that is velvety, super bold fruit, and drinks very well, it’s not made to age.

Thanks Todd, this has always been an area of confusion for me too, so I appreciate your insight. I used to think that only certain varietals could age well, like a Cabernet or Pinot, but that a Merlot could not. Now I understand it’s not the varietal so much as it is how the winemaker grows, ferments and ages it. It’s still a learning process for me!

Just to be clear the grape variety does matter, some grapes have more natural ability for aging then others. Wines need structure to age well, that structure comes from tannin or acid or best is a nice combo of both. These natural preservative can come off harsh and unattractive in very young wines, so the modern wine industry though, vineyard management, pick times and winemaking have learned how to reduce these factors to make the wine more pleasant on release.

So what this boils down to is you can take the structure away but you can’t add it if it wasn’t there to begin with. I know it makes this more complicated but that’s wine.

[Lex_S]

@Mike Francisco

@Lex S

@Todd F r e n c h

Jan, it’s a tough question to answer, frankly, as nobody KNOWS it for certain. It comes from experience, tasting wines that are young and at other times in your life tasting those same producers with some age, realizing what the wine is like later on compared to early on, and seeing what your preference is. For example, you might enjoy a Ridge Monte Bello 5 years after release, then you try one that’s 25 years old and you LOVE it, as it’s a different wine - that’s the type of wine you ‘know’ ages well, based solely on your own experience and opinion, and that’s all that matters in the end.

Also, you can tell, more simply, by a wine that seems really structured or ridiculously oaky - likely the winemaker is intending that wine to age. Many wines now - especially in CA - are made to drink soon, as that’s where the majority of the market is. If you drink a Chardonnay that tastes super oaky and seems like it has no fruit, it’s made to age. If you drink a Cab that is velvety, super bold fruit, and drinks very well, it’s not made to age.

Thanks Todd, this has always been an area of confusion for me too, so I appreciate your insight. I used to think that only certain varietals could age well, like a Cabernet or Pinot, but that a Merlot could not. Now I understand it’s not the varietal so much as it is how the winemaker grows, ferments and ages it. It’s still a learning process for me!

Just to be clear the grape variety does matter, some grapes have more natural ability for aging then others. Wines need structure to age well, that structure comes from tannin or acid or best is a nice combo of both. These natural preservative can come off harsh and unattractive in very young wines, so the modern wine industry though, vineyard management, pick times and winemaking have learned how to reduce these factors to make the wine more pleasant on release.

So what this boils down to is you can take the structure away but you can’t add it if it wasn’t there to begin with. I know it makes this more complicated but that’s wine.

Thank you very much, Mike Francisco! The details fascinate me, even if it does make it a little more complicated to understand. I wonder if there is a scale that illustrates which grapes have a greater capacity for structure and which ones not so much. Are there any other factors besides tannin and acid that are significant for aging to improve a wine? Thanks again for breaking that down!

[Peter_Papay]

Maybe this helps

How Long to Cellar Wine (infographic)

[Lex_S]

@Peter Papay

Maybe this helps

How Long to Cellar Wine (infographic)

Thanks Peter Papay! I’m going to remember that link - very helpful!

[Mike_Francisco]

@Lex S

Thank you very much, Mike Francisco! The details fascinate me, even if it does make it a little more complicated to understand. I wonder if there is a scale that illustrates which grapes have a greater capacity for structure and which ones not so much. Are there any other factors besides tannin and acid that are significant for aging to improve a wine? Thanks again for breaking that down!

Lex,
I am sure there are books out there that try and Illustrates the tendencies of different verities of wine grapes, others may have good suggestions on that. As to other factors that help wines age I am sure there are many, for one sugar in very sweet wines can take the place of tannin or just be part of the mix in things like Vintage Port. So sadly the simpler the answer, the less accurate the answer.