How do you know a wine will be good years in the future?

[Philip_N_Jones]

I have had good luck following Parker’s recommendations. Some of his predictions have been very accurate. Some producers, such as Carlisle, give very detailed drinkability charts. And some other critics give predictions. Lacking one of those, I just guess. But I try to drink two or three years before the predictions forecast doom. It’s worked out pretty well so far.
Phil Jones

[juanboulter]

@Brian Tuite

@Jan Jaeger

@Joe B

It’s never a waste of money. In ten or twenty years if the wine is not to your taste, you will certainly be able to find a buyer who will find it pleasant to his taste.

Thank you, but that’s not exactly the answer to the question.

The answer is you don’t know although many producers have track records showing the ageability of their wines. It’s a leap of faith based on past experience with similar wine. A big thing to consider when putting wines away for a while is what your palate preference is. Aged wine has different characteristics from young wine and may or may not be pleasing to your palate when those aromas and flavors are revealed. That’s where Joes answer comes into play.

Personally I would rather not wait to find out I have to sell it on the secondary market. Anything beyond 10 years in my cellar is a stretch. Anything older I will source from another one bottle at a time to be safe. Problem there though is provenance. You just don’t know the history of that bottle you buy at auction. Some times you win, sometimes you lose, just like cellaring. It’s a crap shoot either way. Thing about cellaring is being able to follow the wine every year or two to see how it is progressing, or not. Knowing where the sweet spot is and enjoying then. Sometimes that is in the first few years, other times decades after. Adds to the mystique of wine collecting.

These are very informative notes Brian. I appreciate your help…

[juanboulter]

@Robert A

I’m a 20 year novice in experimentation of aged wines. I have tried 13 year old home pressings and storage locker hoards of late. The better the wine the more likely it was stored well I have found. My first hoard was from a cooled facility (Bordeaux wines) and my second from a lower level storage locker with decent temp history (Napa, Sonoma,Bordeaux-Sauternes, Napa Sauvignon Blanc). I keep a list of years and vineyards to refer to. 60’s and 70’s always need 45 minutes to clear. I’ve tried a paper filter but settle time works perfect. '68 Rotheschilde was Excellent after 45 minutes, clear and flavorful. Not all aged wines will be as tasty as a 3 yo wine each is a lesson and a joy taste.

Sensational to hear from a 20 year novice Robert. I am a neophyte of the mature wine world myself and appreciate the words of one who knows…

[Bob_Kot]

Not an easy task.

Although bear in mind, the last several decades of wine making and technology has risen the quality and foreseeable longevity for many wines made today.

There are several approaches that allow you to obtain insight into a wines evolutionary path.

1. With wines that have established track records you can use previous vintages to forecast future performance. For example “Sociando Mallet” is a perennial achiever that maintains a consistent level of predictability. There are thousands of wine that fall into this category. Reading wine reviews will also provide you with the necessary perspective. No guarantees just guidelines and insight.

2. For wines without an established track record, it gets tricky. Having an experience wine purveyor/retailer will give you insight into the aspects of wine development.

Like all pursuits, time, knowledge and experience will facilitate your decision making skills in predicting a wines success.

[M_Simon]

A colleague who has been in the wine business much longer than I have mentioned a method for evaluating the age-ability of a wine that I have not seen on this thread so far.

His name is Bob and he had a job interview with a guy named Bernie back in the late 1960s. At the end of the interview, Bernie told Bob that he would not hire him. “Bob, you’re too into wine for me to hire you…you need to move to Napa Valley, it’s about to blow up”. Bernie then invited Bob to come taste some wine with him. As Bob recounted it, the first wine they tried was an Alsatian Riesling that had been open for 17 days. They then proceeded to try another 10 or so wines. All of them had been open for at least 2 weeks and up to a month. After trying the wines, Bernie asked Bob if he knew why they were trying wines that had been open so long and then explained that if the wines had any fruit aromas left in the last two to four weeks that they would be great for the cellar. I always liked the story, although Bob tells it better, and felt that there was something to it. The Bernie is question is no longer alive, but his restaurant and wine collection are still around at Bern’s Steakhouse in Tampa.

One of the primary forces in the aging process is oxidation. By evaluating an open bottle and studying how it oxides over the course of days to weeks, you can get a qualitative impression of it’s age-worthiness.

Chemistry is not my thing and it’s been over a decade since I took the sensory evaluation course at Davis, but if I recall. The fruit aromas we smell in wine are the left over parts of grape sugars. The sugar is not entirely consumed during the ferm process and the left over chemical chains are almost identical to the volatile molecules(those are the molecules we smell) in other fruits. Those volatile molecules are comprised of Oxygen, Hydrogen and Carbon atoms…same things a sugar is made of. Over time, the volatile molecule in the bottle will lose an Oxygen atom to the anti-oxidants in the wine. Start with Sugar–>Post Fermentation left over molecule smells like a different fruit, like a Cherry–> Tannins in bottle take an Oxygen atom from “Cherry smelling molecule” -->Tannins drop out of solution as sediment–>Volatile molecule minus one atom, now smells like a cigar box.(tertiary aromas).

I rarely taste wines over 30 days, they just don’t last that long. But saving a bottle with just a glass left in it and trying it several days or a week down the road isn’t too difficult. If the wine that you opened at 6pm seems dead/flat at 9pm, it probably won’t do well. If it’s drinking better on day three than on day one, the opposite.

Also, before you age wines, but some older bottles, try them and make sure you like them first.

Cheers,

[Everett_Bandman]

A colleague who has been in the wine business much longer than I have mentioned a method for evaluating the age-ability of a wine that I have not seen on this thread so far.

His name is Bob and he had a job interview with a guy named Bernie back in the late 1960s. At the end of the interview, Bernie told Bob that he would not hire him. “Bob, you’re too into wine for me to hire you…you need to move to Napa Valley, it’s about to blow up”. Bernie then invited Bob to come taste some wine with him. As Bob recounted it, the first wine they tried was an Alsatian Riesling that had been open for 17 days. They then proceeded to try another 10 or so wines. All of them had been open for at least 2 weeks and up to a month. After trying the wines, Bernie asked Bob if he knew why they were trying wines that had been open so long and then explained that if the wines had any fruit aromas left in the last two to four weeks that they would be great for the cellar. I always liked the story, although Bob tells it better, and felt that there was something to it. The Bernie is question is no longer alive, but his restaurant and wine collection are still around at Bern’s Steakhouse in Tampa.

Great story! Many of us here have been to Bern’s I’m sure. Any trip to Florida has to include at least one dinner there, just to taste the wide array of well aged wines. I still remember the 30 year old Cornas by the glass at the bar for $7!!!