Is the natural wine movement damaging the overall wine market?

[Dan_Kravitz]

For the past several decades, young people beginning their exploration of beverage alcohol have too often had their first exposure to wine through natural wine. Why wouldn’t a newbie look at their choices and think that natural wine is better than artificial wine? Artificial wines like, say, Rousseau Chambertin, or Ridge Montebello, or Comte Lafon Montrachet. Or less expensive wines artificial wines like Chateau Lanessan, Ruffino Chianti or KJ Chardonnay. Inexpensive to moderately priced wines not labeled ‘natural’ are the overwhelming majority of all wines produced and consumed.

When they first appeared on the market, many if not most natural wines were clearly flawed. The situation has improved, but there are still a lot of natural wines whose quality and character offer an experience outside the mainstream. All too often, newbies are offered flawed natural wines. Their immediate natural reaction is ‘Ewww!!!’. So if they still have any interest in drinking, they quickly switch to tasty craft beer, or artisanal spirits, or intriguingly concocted cocktails.

In 2020, the world had about 18 million acres of vineyards devoted to wine. As of early 2024, that has decreased to about 16.7 million acres, with a whole lot more coming out lickety-split.

Wine is about 8000 years old. I do not expect it to disappear in my lifetime, but its place in world culture is shaky right now. Does the natural wine movement bear any responsibility for this?

[Greg_K]

In the same way that natural wine won’t save the wine market, it’s certainly not damaging it.

[Kris_Patten]

Much larger threat to wine and BevAlc.

[Otto_Forsberg]

[Rahsaan_M]

@Dan_Kravitz

All too often, newbies are offered flawed natural wines. Their immediate natural reaction is ‘Ewww!!!’. So if they still have any interest in drinking, they quickly switch to tasty craft beer, or artisanal spirits, or intriguingly concocted cocktails.

What is the counterfactual? Most newbies aren’t offered Rousseau, Ridge or Comtes Lafon.

Not sure things are any different with being offered flawed natural wine and flawed industrial wine. Maybe you think the smooth industrial wine beverages are easier gateway wines? But maybe not, the refreshing quality of the flawed natural wines seems to be performing the same function.

How that nets out over time is a tough counterfactual to evaluate.

[nbri_zuela]

Agreed that most people’s first wines are well below Ruffino or Kendall Jackson, let alone Grand Cru Burgundy. Think Franzia, two-buck-chuck, and Yellowtail.

Natural wine is a good way for people to realize wine can have a broader range of possibilities than what they originally thought. Of course we’d wish everyone could drink Montebello or Sassicaia but that’s never going to happen. There are so many excellent natural wines and a huge fraction of new winemakers are gravitating towards it. Having new producers is just as important as having new consumers.

[Dan_Kravitz]

@Rahsaan_M

What is the counterfactual? Most newbies aren’t offered Rousseau, Ridge or Comtes Lafon.

Of course newbies don’t get 4 digit wines to try first. But if their first taste is KJ Chardonnay or a cloudy Jura Savagnin, which is more likely to entice them to try more?

@nbri_zuela

most people’s first wines are well below Ruffino or Kendall Jackson, let alone Grand Cru Burgundy.

I’m not sure that’s still true. I think wine-curious newbies are just as likely to try KJ as Josh or Yellowtail.

Yes, cutting out alcohol all together is a much bigger part of the decline of wine sales, I’m asking if natural wine is part of it.

@Otto_Forsberg

I am an old man, although not as handsome as the guy in the cartoon.
I am not yelling at natural wine, although I generally avoid it, fearing the high percentage odds that I’ll end up with Ptrid Swll.
I’m asking about a possible effect on the overall wine market.

[LasseK]

Well, I will try not to get to deep into this discussion again

All I will say is that natural wines had a big influence on me getting into wine.

[Robert_Dentice]

One Bright Spot Amid the Industry’s Gloom: Natural Wine

[Rahsaan_M]

@Dan_Kravitz

@Rahsaan_M

What is the counterfactual? Most newbies aren’t offered Rousseau, Ridge or Comtes Lafon.

Of course newbies don’t get 4 digit wines to try first. But if their first taste is KJ Chardonnay or a cloudy Jura Savagnin, which is more likely to entice them to try more?

Yes, that is the question and it’s difficult to adjudicate here without proper data!

You assume that the Sweet Industrial product has a broader appeal for newbies. That was probably the case in the past, but what about all those stereotypes that the Kombucha Generation has a different palate.

Also, it’s not an either or. KJ Chardonnay and the like are there at places likely to cater to newbie demographics who will appreciate them. All the better if the Jura Savagnin shows a different side of wine to a different newbie. Isn’t that a win-win for the industry!

[MadsW]

Natural wine has had glory days sure, but this year is tremendously bad while I think the conventional side of the wine sales hasn’t budged much.

I know from a big importer in the Netherlands and a contact here in Seoul that the market has imploded, at least in some parts of Asia. Sales are down around 80-90% in South Korea, and my contacts in Europe are being contacted about taking over the allocations that were supposed to go to Asia. A Hong Kong importer told me the same for them.

Consumption patterns inevitably change down the line, and younger generations will surely fill their glass with low-intervention wine.

[Kris_Patten]

Really? 80-90% seems like an exaggeration (frankly I hope it is), but could be accurate. Any sources that show this kind of decline?

[MadsW]

This is purely anecdotal so please take it with caution. I was told by importers both here and there(NL).

I would like to add that Korean consumers are extremely disloyal. Highball one month, beer next, then wine, then cocktails. On and on.

[TGibson]

I don’t think it’s hurting the market. If anything I would guess it has helped. Wine has long been intimidating to many people. Whether deserved or not, it’s been associated with a highfalutin attitude. The natural wine movement did a good job with smashing the pretentiousness connected to wine by everything from the labels to the generally modest prices. It made it something many youngsters may have thought was cool in a mildly rebellious way. Something more egalitarian to what the previous generation may have thought about wine before they got into it.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty about the movement I don’t like.

[quote=“Dan_Kravitz, post:1, topic:327926”]
When they first appeared on the market, many if not most natural wines were clearly flawed
[/quote] When did they first appear on the market? Honest question. We’ve all heard of the Gang of Four. I don’t have much knowledge with them or Bojo in general but some of those are pretty good. I am thinking of Eduardo Valentini whom I sold for an importer/distributor. No one that I know ever referred to those as natural wines and I don’t know if natural purists would call them as such but they’re pretty natural and do have bottle variation. They’re unusual and not exactly newbie friendly but they’re great. Even the bottles that are not ‘on’ are still good. I believe he began in the mid 1950s and worked in a similar manner until his death in the 2000s. Perhaps the wines were even made in a similar way before him. Anyhow, I think natural wines, and good ones, preceded the term natural wine.

[quote=“Dan_Kravitz, post:1, topic:327926”]
newbies are offered flawed natural wines. Their immediate natural reaction is ‘Ewww!!
[/quote] True, but I think that has historically been the first reaction many have to wine. ngl, I didn’t care much for most of the first wines I tried. When I was working in a restaurant at 17 or 18 years of age it was Sutter Home White Zin that appealed to me more than any other wine. Then it was Gewurztraminer. I hope it’s understood I have left the Sutter Home behind in favor of others and my mind is always open but Gewurz in all its floral glory is not something high on my list of things to drink. Point being, just because someone initially has an ewwww response to any wine isn’t going to stop them from trying others. Furthermore, whatever the gateway wine may be, the taste of the true wine drinker is likely to evolve.

[Mariano_Chiaramonte]

@Dan_Kravitz

Why wouldn’t a newbie look at their choices and think that natural wine is better than artificial wine

Have you ever been around young natural wine drinkers, and interacted with any of them? This is the first time I heard the term artificial wine as the antithesis of natural wine.

@Dan_Kravitz

When they first appeared on the market, many if not most natural wines were clearly flawed. The situation has improved

In my experience, quite the opposite happened.

@Dan_Kravitz

All too often, newbies are offered flawed natural wines. Their immediate natural reaction is ‘Ewww!!!’.

Again, in my experience the opposite is the general rule, newbies love flawed natural wines. They don’t give a dime about the notion of wine flaws, and from what I’m concerned, that’s fine, I’m no one to judge, if I don’t like the juice I don’t drink it.

@Dan_Kravitz

they quickly switch to tasty craft beer

They don’t, some flawed natural wines remind them of craft beer or cider, and that is one of the reasons are appealing to them.

@Dan_Kravitz

But if their first taste is KJ Chardonnay or a cloudy Jura Savagnin, which is more likely to entice them to try more?

The answer is simple, they’ll choose the cloudy Jura Savagnin, KJ Chardonnay is what their mother drinks.

[PeterH]

This all reminds me of arguments back in the 1960s about whether pop-art was destroying fine art. Remember that we are talking about Lichtenstein, Oldenberg, Rosenquist, Warhol, etc. following in the footsteps of Robert Rauschenberg and Jasper Johns.
Go back farther and there was a similar break caused by the advent of photography, which seemed to make direct representation pointless.
Someone needed to break art free from the patronage (thus sucking up to) the upper class. Perhaps the same has to occur with wine. I don’t call that damage.

[Yule_Kim]

@Mariano_Chiaramonte

They don’t, some flawed natural wines remind them of craft beer or cider, and that is one of the reasons are appealing to them.

This. I know quite a few people who say they enjoy natural wine because it reminds them of lambics or ciders. They aren’t wine drinkers, so to them, those characteristics are features, not bugs.

[Kent_Comley]

Dan,
It’s an interesting point that you raise and I do not have any empirical evidence to counter or support, nor do I know your market, only my little back water and observing my children and their peers.

But I think that natural wine is not a factor. Having just judged at a local wine show it was interesting to hear the young ones talk about experimental wines, looking to push the boundaries, but these were all highly trained winemakers who were looking to make wines of character, but not make faulty wines.

I think the key factors are this:-

Youinger people seem to be drinking less and are on average are more health conscious than previous generations. Alcohol is the enemy.

When consumers go out they don’t drink drive. When I was in my 20s it was common place. So there is less wine drunk at the dinner table by drivers.

There are far more beverage choices today, many purporting to be lower alcohol, lower carbs and thus implicitly implying a more healthy option. It’s not just beer, wine and spirits. There’s cocktails, seltzers, spritzers, a huge array of interesting artisanal spirits, mocktails, kombuchas, zero alcohol alternatives etc etc

Back in the 80s and 90s wine was on a roll, lots of new cellar door experiences offering new experiences to consumers with growing disposable income and leisure time. Visiting wine regions and learning about wine was a popular pursuit. In Australia it was a low cost excursion with no tasting fees, unlimited samples and little pressure to purchase. Coupled with this was some great restaurant experiences at the winery. Today perhaps the cellar door experience is not as compelling and often involves tasting fees, tutored tastings and quite pricey menus. Not really what the young ones are looking for.

Enough rambling, but we see it in te restaurant here. Cocktail sales growing. Mocktail sales exploding. NA beer sales growing. Artisanal gin and whiskies growing. Water sales very strong.

Our focus is on wine, but sales of wine per cover is very flat, probably receding by volume. The only saving grace is that spend per bottle is increasing ahead of inflation and there is definitely a move to more premium by the glass selections and wine by the glass sales are robust.

[etomasi]

I think most of these posts are missing the cultural aspect of wine. Natural wines typically have a great story. Small producers, families striving in the face of adversity, against industrialization, etc. These stories and cultural signifiers are really important and denote authenticity (which was huge for the millennials, not sure bout the newer generation) and “coolness.” Most people want to drink “what the cool people are drinking” whether they admit it or not. Look at us posting our tasting notes and wine dinners on this forum, thats certainly a 'look at how cool I am" moment. I’m just as guilty. We can afford this, but when you are 25, you typically can’t afford high end aged Burgundy, Bordeaux, etc. But you can afford $40 something fun, cool natural wines.

as to why it might be tanking? It might be a simple as the youngest generation doesnt want to drink what the older generation is drinking. Its not cool, so they either dont drink, they use MJ, or mixed drinks.

[C_Wagner]

I think you have a point.

I also think the natural wine debate needs to be divided between the new world (especially the US) and old world. Much of wine producing Europe has affordable access to far higher quality “natural” wine than what comes to the US. This certainly has an impact. From my point of view it makes “natural” wine more appealing in Europe than the US.

My real question is whether (in the US) the push by restaurants and, to a lesser extent, retail towards some natural wine is really fully altruistic or if it doesn’t allow for greater margins. If you can put that natty French wine on the BTG menu for $17/glass you’re doing real well if it’s available for $13/bottle wholesale. It also doesn’t hurt that the distribution is somewhat limited so the Vivino group isn’t perceiving a poor value. Plus, you know, moral high ground.