thanks for the heads up y’all. grabbed my Canons today.
I do have to admit, the prices from most of these wines EP is a little bit crazy. most of these don’t seem worth it to me either. Only doing the Canon mentioned above because I have a vertical going and this price isn’t too bad for it.
In the current environment in the United States, I think purchasing Bordeaux futures is,
A good idea if you want large formats. Outside of the really large national retailers, I have found that magnums and larger formats are not as frequently available on store shelves as they used to be.
Essential if you want half bottles. These have never in my experience been terribly common in retail when you get into the mid and upper range wines, and these days I rarely see them available at all.
A good way to go if you are interested in mid-range wines that are among the best rated by the critics. As someone earlier noted, and I have done statistical studies on this in the past, Parker almost single-handedly drove futures pricing and subsequent demand when he was rating Bordeaux. The Wine Spectator has more influence overall, but for higher end wines and buying strategies for serious collectors (i.e. futures)- Parker was it. These days, you kind of have to look at the overall picture. If everyone is giving a very high 90s to 100 point score- that is the new driver. Price matters as well.
As with residential real estate these days- the more expensive a wine is, the less of a hurry there is to secure that wine. If every critic gives a $600 first growth 98-100 points and a $200 “super-second” or “super-third” 98-100 points, the latter wine will evaporate while the first growth is still sitting there for sale. In the world of 10+ years ago, both would have sold through relatively quickly- but not as quickly as the $200 bottle will tend to now.
For 2015 and 2016, I think buying Bordeaux futures made more sense than it has since the 2005s came along. 2018 pricing is testing those limits- and despite the high scores it is a very weather-marked vintage and so something of a risk. While I have some enthusiasm for 2018, the memories of 2003 are still pretty fresh in my mind.
But even recently, I think your strategy of pre-arrival- even though at a higher price- is a very sensible consideration. I have ordered 2018 Leoville Barton and Palmer on pre-arrival. The price is about 15% higher than TW futures- but I can easily beat that return in a broad sense by keeping that money in my pocket until the wines get here. I will probably go ahead and do Montrose on futures to be safe (see next paragraph.)
For 2016, Montrose was the only wine I bought on a true futures basis. I paid about $150 per bottle, and when the distributor reps came through Texas recently doing tastings and offering library releases the 2016 price is now $312.50 per bottle retail. It is more expensive than even 2010, 2009 and 2005. That is still more than current retail for wine already in the supply chain- but gives a very clear picture of where the price is headed. Given the relatively low price of Montrose as a top Bordeaux and the scores the wine received in 2016- it was a no-brainer to me to do futures.
However, Mouton and Leoville Barton I did on pre-arrival- and very recently at that. The price there was not much higher than futures- less than 10% difference- and it proved a wise and easy move. Barton did not have the near 100 point scores, and Mouton- being a very pricey first growth- was not likely to start jumping up in price until at least a year after release (and jump it will, I imagine- but not yet.)
Lafite just posted, $319 split, $639 bottle, $1237 mag. 50% down to secure.
Total appears to have quietly changed the terms of their futures program to account for the tariffs (spoiler: it’s not in the consumer’s favor).
Old terms:
• Only pay a 50% deposit at the time the order is placed.
• Depending on the release date of the chateaux, your wines will arrive in the U.S. in approximately 1.5 to 2 years.
• As wines arrive to our warehouse, up to 50% of each order will be sent to your selected store and a “Ready for Pickup” notification will be sent via email.
• Per order, when the value of the wines that have arrived into our warehouse exceeds the 50% deposit, the remaining balance will be charged.
• Should the payment on file need to be updated, we will reach out to you.
• Only after the remaining balance of an order is charged, the remainder of the wine will be sent to your selected store as they arrive into our warehouse.
• As wines arrive at the store, you will be notified via email.
• To pick up wines at the store, you will need to show your “Ready for Pickup” email and valid ID and sign for the bottles that are being picked up.
• As wines arrive at various times across multiple weeks/months, you may choose to wait until all your wines have arrived to pick up your full order.
New terms:
• Only pay a 50% deposit at the time the order is placed.* This deposit will reserve the product(s) for you until the time of delivery.
• Your reserved order is not considered a purchase until paying the full purchase price and all applicable taxes at the time of delivery.
• Your wines will likely arrive in the United States in approximately 1.5 to 2 years contingent upon when the respective châteaux choose to release their wine. We have no control over the importation of wine into the United States, and disclaim any responsibility for delays in production, importation, or delivery.
• Wines in your order may arrive at different times. As wines arrive to the importer’s warehouse, they will be sent to your selected store and a “Ready for Pickup” notification will be sent to you via email.
• When the value* of the wine that has arrived exceeds your 50% deposit, the remaining balance will be charged to the account on file.
• Should the payment on file need to be updated, we will contact you.
• Once the order’s outstanding balance is paid in full, the remainder of your order will be delivered to your selected store and you will receive a “Ready for Pickup” email.
• To pick up complete or partial wine orders at the store, you will need to show your “Ready for Pickup” email, a valid ID, and sign for the bottles that are being picked up.
• As wines can arrive at various times across multiple weeks/months, you may choose to wait until all your wines have arrived to pick up your complete order.
*The price reflected on your order form is subject to change after the order is placed in the event of a change in tariffs or taxes that are imposed by the U.S. government, or in the case of currency fluctuations of 10% or greater. If any changes impact your order, you will be notified and given the option of a full refund for goods not received.
Anyone want to wager on whether they honor the original orders at the original prices, or just unilaterally start canceling/refunding stuff?
Very interesting. I’d be fascinated to know how dramatically this suppresses their futures purchases.
If I were them, I’d put the tariff/currency issue in a bright red window that pops up when you push the purchase button.
Out of all the people in the country that could eat the tariffs I would place Total at #1. I would be surprised if they don’t honor the original orders at the original prices.
edit to clarify:
I suspect they will for prior orders Just not on a going forward basis.
I cannot imagine any company eating the tariff going forward, or any consumer expecting them to eat the tariff going forward, on new purchases.
I’m being told by retailers that importers/wholesalers are doing everything they can to ameliorate tariffs. Starting with negotiating some modest discounts at the source producer when possible, distributing the pain across their product line when possible, passing through instead of marking up the tariffs as a normal cost, etc. That might work for larger, established importers and wholesalers, though smaller ones operating on the edge maybe not.
I had some rewards to use so stopped in TW. They have increased the pricing for the 2015 and 2016 BDXs that were already on the shelf as if they had paid the tariff. Don’t see them eating anything. Was also the end of my relationship with TW.
Unless there’s some fine print missing from the “Old Terms” in post #24, I don’t see how they can change the terms after orders have been placed and deposits received without exposing themselves to liability. OTOH, the cost and hassle of taking them to court would likely be prohibitive unless you had a really large order canceled.
True, but wouldn’t such a blanket policy expose them to a class action suit?
I suppose TW has enough futures out there to be a potential class action target Jeremy. Would be best if the risk served as a deterrent, since successful class actions take a lot of time and result in a significant chunk of the settlement going to the attorneys. Would class members receive wine or dollars?
Even if they are more than others you know they are not folding up the operation. The Total Wine in Bloomington, MN gets more traffic in an hour then just about any shop in the area gets in a day.
does this change apply to futures orders that have already been placed or only orders going forward?
Coupons!
ugh even my coupons have sucked this year. they’ve all required purchase of at least 6 bottles for like 15% off. I miss the 20% off all old world wines without a lower limit coupons.
I very much doubt they would try to apply the policy to old orders
Hank, original orders doesn’t mean a thing, if tariffs are 100% or more, as USTR will review 120 days after the next tariff decision, no one can eat 100%, nor should they…what they should do is ask if you want them still with 100% tariff risk then order or cancel them based on your answer…or potentially hold them in Europe hoping these go away.
No one should have to eat these tariffs based on an audible by the government. The rules changed midstream out of the retailer or consumer control.
I agree they have to raise prices on futures; but less impressed by Total raising prices on current stock. Very short sighted, and will annoy their customer base.